Chapter 205: What Kind Of Top Armchair Strategist Expert
“Forget the consultant role, I’ll just observe at most,” Lin Ran said.
McNamara was somewhat disappointed upon hearing this.
In McNamara’s mind, Lin Ran had always been a god-like existence.
Unrivaled in pure mathematics and applied mathematics.
Many excel in pure mathematics, but switching from pure mathematics to applied fields usually requires time to adapt.
Those like Lin Ran who can switch seamlessly are extremely rare.
And those who can reach top-tier levels in both fields simultaneously are even nonexistent.
Before the Göttingen miracle, McNamara had personally witnessed a miracle.
That was at NASA, on-site commanding Gagarin’s return to Earth, with calculation precision faster and more accurate than the IBM computer cluster.
McNamara, witnessing it all from the observation room, kept shouting “oh my god.”
If not for the war machine being in startup, plus his sensitive identity limiting travel, and temporary security arrangements being troublesome, after hearing about Brother Ran’s Göttingen speech content, he would have flown there on a plane long ago.
Later, after the media extensively reported the Göttingen miracle, McNamara privately complained to Lin Ran about why he wasn’t told in advance.
If he had known in advance, he would have arranged a week off to witness the miracle on-site.
Therefore, after proving the twin prime conjecture on-site, Lin Ran was no longer just a god; in McNamara’s view, he was God walking in the mortal realm, an existence one level higher than a god.
Plus, with the MIT Radiation Laboratory Series backing Lin Ran, and it targeting Vietnam rather than China.
Thus, McNamara issued the invitation without hesitation.
He himself not only believed in mathematics guiding war but was also a practical practitioner.
During World War II, he used statistics to analyze the effects of bombing Japan. In the 1960s, McNamara even claimed that war could be visualized with specific quantitative metrics. In May 1962, when he went to Vietnam, he even claimed, “Every quantitative measurement shows we are winning the war.”
In some areas, McNamara was even comparable to a bald micro-management expert.
He insisted on quantifying control over every military operation detail, like reconnaissance flights, where he required pilots to strictly follow “time-over-target” (TOT), executed at the same time every day.
That’s right, it sounds utterly stupid—wouldn’t doing this increase the risk of planes being shot down?
At first, the Vietnam side couldn’t believe it, thinking Americans were bluffing, mixing true and false.
But the Americans really were that stupid, always executing according to the commander’s microscopic requirements.
Leading to a series of planes being shot down, like Colonel Charles Klusmann being shot down and crashing in the Plain of Jars, and captured.
In terms of war, McNamara was someone who believed in statistics to the bone.
And in the past, he thought his approach failed because his computational power wasn’t strong enough.
If I find the strongest person on Earth to help me calculate, I definitely won’t lose!
McNamara had thought it over ten thousand times but never considered that his strategy was the problem.
I relied on this strategy to bomb Japan to bits—how could it be wrong?
McNamara probably thought Vietnam had a larger area, more complex terrain, and Americans hadn’t personally entered the fray.
This time, the “heavenly troops” are personally entering, and I’m also inviting the professor to help calculate.
The factors leading to failure are resolved—this time we surely won’t lose.
That was McNamara’s exact idea.
Upon hearing this, Lin Ran shook his head and said, “Sorry, I don’t want to get involved in war.”
“But I don’t mind observing how you formulate specific combat plans when I come to the White House to report.”
Lin Ran truly didn’t want to intervene, but he wanted this spacetime’s Americans to go further down the data-driven path.
“Professor, there’s no time like the present? Let’s go take a look now,” McNamara issued the invitation.
Lin Ran gladly agreed.
Walking into the war room, he saw a huge Vietnam map and various statistical charts.
On the map, colorful map pins were densely packed, marking both sides’ front-line positions.
McNamara stood in front of the map, gesturing toward Lin Ran with his hand; his gaze swept over every mark, trying to glimpse the future of the war this way.
Lin Ran’s appearance caused a brief pause in the low murmurs in the war room.
McNamara turned around, his face blooming with an enthusiastic smile, extending his hand: “Professor, welcome. I’m thrilled you can witness firsthand how we harness data to control this war.”
Lin Ran smiled slightly: “McNamara, I’m just observing. The application of statistics in war is a fascinating topic.”
McNamara led him to the map, pointing to an area covered in red map pins. “This is our latest intelligence, showing YG activity in this area. We plan air strikes and ground operations through this data.”
His voice was full of confidence.
If Lin Ran didn’t know their rigid combat plans, he might have believed it.
“The data volume is impressive. But I’d like to ask, how do you verify the sources of this intelligence? In the chaos of the war zone, data reliability is a challenge.”
McNamara said firmly: “We have multiple channels: aerial reconnaissance, ground reports, prisoner interrogations. We ensure accuracy through cross-verification.”
He pointed to a pile of printouts nearby, “These are the latest casualty and materials data, updated daily.”
Lin Ran clapped: “That’s a great method.”
Trying to capture the essence of war with massive data.
Lin Ran thought to himself, you guys must buy out all of China’s electronic calculators.
Honestly, if anyone else were Secretary of Defense, China’s calculators wouldn’t sell much.
But it’s McNamara; based on Lin Ran’s real-world interactions with him and historical records, he’s certain that even if General Electric’s electronic calculators cost ten thousand US dollars each, McNamara would equip every Department of Defense employee with one.
Now personally witnessing McNamara’s war room, Lin Ran was even more convinced.
He said: “Cross-verification is a good method.
But in war, information is often fragmented and full of noise.
Have you considered using statistical models to fill gaps or predict trends?”
Not enough, this level of mathematical methods isn’t sufficient yet—needs more pushing, Lin Ran thought.
McNamara’s eyes lit up; the professor truly is my kindred spirit—to use a Chinese allusion, it’s like Gao Shan and flowing water finding a soulmate:
“We’re using operations research to optimize logistics, like linear programming for materials allocation. But at the strategic level, we may need more complex tools.”
He paused, then added, “That’s why I invited you, professor. I hope your expertise can point us in the direction.”
They continued talking, with McNamara showing Lin Ran a batch of humming IBM computers, screens displaying curves of enemy death tolls.
“This is one of our core metrics,” McNamara said proudly, “By tracking YG casualties, we can judge if our actions are effective.”
Lin Ran stared at the curve chart, his brow slightly furrowed, but inwardly laughing hard.
Death toll? What can such a single metric represent?
Trying to reflect the overall war progress with death tolls.
Are you trying to turn this into an endless war of attrition?
Besides, YG uses guerrilla warfare; enemy numbers aren’t the key at all.
Seeing this, Lin Ran inwardly sighed: McNamara is purely obsessed with statistics.
More Zhao Kuo than Zhao Kuo himself.
“Great work!” Lin Ran nodded slightly.
The officers in the war room, already dissatisfied with McNamara, exchanged glances.
Everyone surely knew who Lin Ran was.
They originally thought Lin Ran coming would harshly critique McNamara; problems they could see, they didn’t believe the world’s top mathematician couldn’t.
But Lin Ran gave a barrage of praise instead, which they didn’t expect, and inwardly sighed: No wonder he’s a character of Chinese descent thriving like a fish in water in the White House; his ability to spout nonsense with a straight face is too strong.
As for why they didn’t dare oppose McNamara, it was because he had massive power backing him, with multiple forces supporting; ordinary employees like them couldn’t rebel.
McNamara paused, his gaze shifting from the charts to Lin Ran’s face: I’m right after all! Even the professor thinks so!
He continued explaining: “But reality is more complex than simple numbers, yet we need a quantifiable standard to prove to Congress and the public that we’re advancing.”
McNamara paused, adding, “Data is the cornerstone of our decision making.”
Lin Ran nodded: “That’s a great idea. I’ve always firmly believed one thing: data is more reliable than people! Also, you might try exploring other metrics, like economic or social stability indicators, for a more comprehensive assessment of the situation.”
Buy a few more portable calculators, set up more complex mathematical calculation models and richer data metrics for grassroots staff.
To the point where they have no choice but to buy portable calculators, Lin Ran pondered.
McNamara sighed after hearing this, rubbing his temples. “The problem is, these metrics are hard to measure. In the war zone, getting reliable economic data is nearly impossible.”
Lin Ran said: “Even so, I think it’s worth trying.
Statistics excels at handling imperfect data.
You could try using sampling surveys or proxy variables to estimate these metrics.”
After pondering for a moment, Lin Ran added, “For example, analyzing agricultural output or population movement through aerial reconnaissance photos.”
McNamara nodded thoughtfully: “How to implement sampling surveys in Vietnam’s environment? It sounds challenging.”
Lin Ran smiled and explained: “I think we can try training local personnel for small surveys or using intelligence data for indirect estimates. Of course, this requires innovation and rigorous analysis.” McNamara pondered for a moment, then said: “This sounds promising. I’ll have my team study these methods.”
He turned to an analyst nearby and gave a few quiet instructions.
The conversation shifted to technical details, discussing Bayesian statistics in intelligence analysis and how to use decision theory to optimize strategic choices.
Lin Ran mentioned: “Bayesian methods allow us to dynamically update hypotheses based on new data, especially suited to war zone uncertainty.”
McNamara nodded, a rare smile on his face. “This is exactly what we need: a way to navigate the fog.”
At the end of the dialogue, McNamara shook Lin Ran’s hand sincerely: “Professor, your insights are precious. I hope we can continue cooperating to explore more possibilities of statistics in war.”
Lin Ran smiled back: “Sorry, Mr. President assigned me mainly to NASA, and I can’t bear to see war reports.
You see them as numbers, but I’ll think of the living people behind them.
I simply can’t make my heart as hard as steel about it.
As an ancient Chinese saying goes, treating human life like weeds—I can’t do that.”
A pained expression appeared on Lin Ran’s face.
After the White House declassified postwar archives related to this war, Vietnamese people collectively denounced Lin Ran, thinking Chinese people were too malicious, pretending innocence while constantly amplifying Vietnamese suffering.
But in Vietnamese eyes, McNamara was definitely the worst; in a sense, he single-handedly dominated this war.
Senator Wayne Morse called this war “McNamara’s war,” meaning you started it single-handedly.
Starting from 1962, one fact-finding mission after another was sent to Vietnam by McNamara.
McNamara even came up with the top rotten plan of using the Air Force to mass-spray rice field herbicides in the Phu An mountains to starve YG.
You like guerrilla warfare? Then I’ll cut off your food supply—McNamara was ruthless among the ruthless in dealing with Vietnam.
The herbicide was stopped, but Agent Orange in Vietnam didn’t stop; from 1962 to 1971, the American Air Force sprayed nearly 19 million gallons of herbicides in Vietnam, at least 11 million gallons being Agent Orange.
And in the 1964 Gulf of Tonkin incident, the “Maddox” and another destroyer “Turner Joy” initially reported being attacked by Vietnamese torpedo boats in international waters on a stormy night, but soon after reported that the attack might not have happened.
McNamara exerted strong pressure on Herrick through Pacific Fleet Admiral Grant Sharp II, forcing him to admit his ships were attacked by torpedo boats.
Then McNamara went to Congress, submitting what he called evidence of the attack on naval warships in the Gulf of Tonkin international waters, stating Congress must pass the resolution quickly.
However, McNamara actually misled Johnson on the so-called “Maddox” incident by concealing the Pacific Command commander’s opposition to airstrikes.
Decades later in 1995, McNamara met Vietnam’s former Secretary of Defense.
The other party claimed the August 4 attack never happened, and McNamara eventually accepted this conclusion.
Of course, McNamara wanted war, but interest groups were the core drivers; relying on his personal will alone couldn’t achieve it.
This war, front to back, burned over 250 billion US dollars—that’s 250 billion in those days.
Congressional voting shows it was collective will; on fighting Vietnam, only two congressmen voted against.
Lin Ran continued: “However, Mike, I must remind you: statistics is powerful, but it needs to combine with intuition and domain knowledge to truly work.”
Spring 1965
Washington National Airport, thousands of audience gathered under clear skies.
American and Soviet Union flags fluttered side by side.
Gagarin, in astronaut uniform, walked off the airplane, smiling and waving; the crowd erupted in enthusiastic cheers.
Cheers welcoming this space hero who first landed on the Moon.
Previously Kennedy didn’t let him visit America; this time it was Lyndon Johnson, who actively invited him to visit America.
Just to show this White House’s aspiration for peace.
As for fighting Vietnam and quickly resolving the battle, that didn’t count as disrupting peace—that was teaching the kid a lesson.
After all, not long ago, just this year’s February, YG attacked the American airport in Pleiku, killing 8 American soldiers and destroying 10 airplanes.
In Lyndon Johnson’s view, their intervention was just, the reasons legitimate.
Standing at the podium, Gagarin said in English:
“Dear American friends, it’s an honor to stand before you today.
Our moon journey is not just a victory for the Soviet Union or America; it’s humanity’s victory. We transcended differences together and touched the stars.
I hope our cooperation in space inspires peace and friendship on Earth, proving that even in difficult times, unity can achieve great things.”
The crowd gave thunderous applause, moved by his sincerity.
Clearly, Washington D.C. and surroundings were mainly progressive voters, leaning toward peace.
Lyndon Johnson then spoke:
“Today, we welcome Yuri Gagarin, this brave man who landed on the Moon and now visits our country.
His achievement combined with American wisdom proves what we can achieve together. America is proud of this cooperation, showcasing the power of science, determination, and human spirit.
As we gaze at the stars, we face Earth challenges. Let this cooperation be a beacon guiding us to a future united by progress, not conflict.”
His words received even warmer applause.
To the well-educated public, though Soviets landed on the Moon first, America’s advantage in aerospace technology was undeniable; the guidance accuracy shown in the moon landing was enough to chill any nation.
That evening at the White House welcome banquet, Gagarin met the long-admired Randolph Lin.
He gave a big hug right away: “Professor, thank you. I know clearly that without you, I should be lying on the Moon unable to return, and even the next moon lander might not bring my body back to Earth.”
As an astronaut who could design spacecraft himself, he knew even better how awesome Lin Ran was.
Later, the Soviet Space Agency repeatedly reviewed it.
The radio channel was shared; when Lin Ran commanded Gagarin, the Soviet Space Agency was on the channel too, and they recorded all of Lin Ran’s commands.
Whether command precision or timeliness, the post-review left the Soviets and Gagarin himself deeply impressed.
At least they definitely couldn’t do it.
Gagarin knew clearly how much help Lin Ran and NASA provided for his successful return to Earth.
This was a life-saving grace.
Lin Ran laughed: “We can’t watch a hero sacrifice.”
Without media around, Lin Ran was very direct: “Korolev’s approach disregards astronauts’ lives, moon landing for the sake of moon landing.
By your previous methods, even if you got there, so what.”
Gagarin was a bit embarrassed; he explained: “Professor, I fully understood the risks beforehand; it was my own will.
I was willing to give everything for humanity’s aerospace undertaking, even my life.”
Lin Ran thought, compared to Gagarin’s real-world death in 1968 during routine flight training with his flight instructor, crashing a MiG near Kirzhach and perishing, dying during the moon landing would actually be luckier.
There were even rumors that Gagarin died from internal strife, KGB’s doing.
For Gagarin, dying for humanity’s aerospace or in a training accident were both death, but meanings worlds apart.
Thus, Lin Ran didn’t dwell; at least he avoided the worst and second-worst outcomes—humanity landed on the Moon and returned successfully to Earth; NASA and the White House faced no excessive criticism for it being Soviets.
This was already the best outcome.
“Alright, congratulations to you, and to me; we created a miracle together, humanity’s moon landing miracle,” Lin Ran toasted.
After clinking glasses with him, Gagarin said: “So, professor, looking forward to tomorrow on Columbia Television.”
Columbia Television’s Washington D.C. studio was brightly lit, with the prominent station logo in the background highlighting this historic moment.
Gagarin and Lin Ran sat side by side; though from opposing countries, to TV audiences, they seemed remarkably harmonious.
Gagarin exuded extraordinary confidence and humility; Lin Ran was the same.
No matter how many exclusive interviews or TV/newspaper appearances, the public seeing them still couldn’t help sighing: Randolph is just too young.
Not only younger than Washington politicians, but also compared to prime-of-life astronauts.
In the studio, Cronkite conducted the interview, smiling outwardly but thrilled inwardly; he’d never been so proud of his work—interviewing the professor and Gagarin.
Either one alone as guest would make any host content for life.
Chapters 120 and 121 will be revised in a couple days.
