Chapter 134: Cuban Missile Crisis
“Talk directly with Nikita?”
Everyone present repeated Lin Ran’s words.
Lin Ran looked completely matter-of-fact: “That’s right.
Now the White House and the Kremlin are the two sides in the game.
From the perspective of game theory, the more information, the more rational the decisions made.
With more information, we can more accurately evaluate the situation, predict opponent behavior, and choose the optimal strategy.
A complete information game means all participants know the game rules and the opponent’s possible movements.
The most typical case should be chess.
In chess, both sides make what they believe to be the best decisions.
Now let’s say we already know the exact information about the Soviet Union’s missile deployment, and we have the conditions to construct a complete information game.
Then we’re missing one piece of the puzzle, which is the Soviet Union’s strategic intentions.
The purpose behind what they’re doing.
During your arguments, I had no way to judge whether to support General LeMay or Secretary McNamara, or perhaps Secretary of State Rusk.
As an absolutely rational individual, without more information, it’s hard for me to make a decision.
If the Soviet Union’s purpose is strategic defense, then I would support Rusk, and we should use diplomatic means to apply pressure.
If the Soviet Union is doing this to threaten us, to form a deterrence, then I would support General LeMay, and we must dispel such ideas from them.
The more information, the more accurately participants can calculate the expected revenue of each strategy, thereby choosing the optimal action.
In reality, absolute ideal cases like chess are rare, complete information rarely exists, and more often it’s incomplete information games, where participants need to infer opponents’ intentions based on limited information.
At this point, we can introduce a new method, which is Bayesian rationality theory.
Bayesian rationality assumes participants form prior beliefs based on existing information, and with the arrival of new information, update these beliefs through Bayes’ Theorem, thereby optimizing decisions.
New information reduces uncertainty, allowing us to get closer to the true state and thereby improve the rationality of decisions.
Expressed using the mathematical formula Bayes’ Theorem: “
Lin Ran stood up and wrote the formula on the whiteboard with a marker:
“Here P(A|B) is the adjustment to the initial belief P(A) based on new evidence B.
What we need to do now is continuously collect new information to update our judgment of the Soviet Union’s intentions, and thereby adjust our strategy.
So now with a method like the hotline, we can completely use this way to directly probe their true thoughts.”
Lin Ran spoke eloquently in the West Wing Office. He saw that LeMay had something to say and anticipated the other’s remarks:
“General, I know you’ll say that Nikita may not tell the truth.
He might lie, he might disguise, he might give us wrong information, hoping we make a strategic misjudgment.
Your idea is not wrong, but wrong information is also information; wrong information can also help us find the opponent’s true intentions from the fog.”
McNamara nodded frequently as he listened: “I think the professor’s idea is excellent. We need more information to help us make judgments.
Now that we can contact the Kremlin directly, why not just ask them?”
In McNamara’s view, Lin Ran’s suggestion had no logical loopholes and no reason to oppose.
“Even putting the formula out for you, it’s really too elegant, worthy of a mathematics master.” McNamara thought to himself.
Kennedy looked around at the expressions of the White House bureaucrats in the meeting room, then said: “I suggest we vote.”
Lin Ran didn’t expect that Kennedy’s voting meant they would vote, but he wouldn’t.
The seven people present (Vice President, Secretary of State, Air Force Representative, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, National Security Advisor, Special Assistant for Aerospace Affairs) voted by show of hands on whether to use the hotline to contact the Kremlin directly.
In the end, it was an overwhelming 6 to 1 vote, with only LeMay opposing.
Kennedy nodded, “Good, I’ll contact Nikita right now.”
The hotline established between the White House and the Kremlin was not a telephone, but a teletypewriter.
Also, it wasn’t that you send a message and the other side replies immediately.
Usually for this kind, assistants first send a message to arrange a time with the other side, like conducting dialogue at 5 p.m. Eastern Time.
Then both sides wait at the teletypewriter for the other’s information to come through.
Now was no exception; Kennedy’s saying he would contact the other side just meant arranging a time with them.
“Everyone, think carefully about how we should phrase the question.” Kennedy instructed before leaving.
After Kennedy left, Lyndon Johnson continued to host the meeting.
Lyndon Johnson put down his pen, looked up at everyone, his voice low:
“Gentlemen, our time is limited. We now need a question, one that can make him reveal his true intentions, but without making him feel we’re directly threatening him.”
Robert Kennedy said: “Lyndon, we can’t let him think we’re backing down. I suggest asking directly: ‘Why are you deploying missiles in Cuba?’ That way he has to answer his motives head-on.”
McNamara shook his head slightly, fingers tapping the documents lightly: “Too direct. That sounds like an accusation; he might get more hardline.
I think it should be more tactful, like: ‘Are you willing to discuss Cuba’s military deployment with us?’ This gives him a way out and tests his attitude.”
Rusk stood up and paced the room: “I agree with McNamara. We need to give him space to explain himself.
I suggest asking: ‘Has your military aid to Cuba exceeded the scope of defense?’ This points out our concerns without direct confrontation.”
National Security Advisor Bundy crossed his arms over his chest, his expression very grave: “I think we can be more specific. Ask him: ‘Are you willing to let us send people to Cuba to inspect those missile bases?’ This directly tests his sincerity to see if he really wants to negotiate.”
Lyndon Johnson leaned back in his chair, pondered for a moment: “Bundy, your suggestion makes sense, but they’re unlikely to agree to inspections. That would make him lose face.
Especially since our communication is via telegraph, which leaves a written record; in this format, the other side is even less likely to agree. We need a more subtle question that lets him speak without losing dignity.”
General LeMay looked agitated, his voice high: “Lyndon, we can’t delay! Every minute, those missiles get closer to launch. We need to let him know our determination; asking ambiguous questions will just waste time!”
McNamara reached out and patted LeMay’s shoulder gently, soothing: “General, I understand your worries. But we can’t let emotions dominate. If we push too hard, Nikita might go all-in. We need to stay calm.”
McNamara then opened the documents in his hand and said steadily: “According to intelligence, their missile deployment in Cuba might be to balance our missiles in Turkey. Maybe we can ask: ‘Are you willing to withdraw Cuba’s missiles at the same time we withdraw Turkey’s missiles?’ This could open the door to negotiation.”
Rusk frowned, “This sounds like we’re offering concessions first. If they publish our message in the newspaper, it’s very unfavorable to the White House.”
Bundy nodded in agreement: “Exactly, proactively offering to withdraw missiles would make us look weak. Especially leaving such a record in writing is even worse.”
Lyndon Johnson took a deep breath: “I understand. Maybe we can ask: ‘Are you willing to work with us to seek a peaceful solution to avoid the danger of nuclear war?’
This way, it expresses our position while leaving room for dialogue.”
LeMay shook his head: “Too vague, Lyndon! I’m sure Nikita will brush it off with a few words, and we’ll get nothing. We need something more concrete.”
McNamara thought for a moment, then looked up and suggested: “Perhaps we can ask: ‘Are you willing to withdraw Cuba’s missiles under United Nations supervision?'”
This would equivalent to involving the international community.
Applying pressure to the other side while giving both sides buffer space.
Rusk nodded: “That’s a good idea. The United Nations can make things more controllable.”
At this point Lin Ran proposed: “I think the first question should be to directly ask for his explanation of Cuba’s military deployment, and the second question is whether he is willing to withdraw Cuba’s missiles under United Nations supervision.”
Everyone couldn’t discuss to a conclusion and instead chose to write the questions on the whiteboard for Kennedy to confirm when he returned.
Kennedy walked into the meeting room with a confident smile on his face: “The Kremlin side agreed. I guess they also want to probe our thoughts.
Everyone, how did your discussion go?”
Lyndon Johnson pointed to the whiteboard behind him: “We wrote our ideas on the board behind you.”
Inside the Kremlin, heavy wooden doors were tightly closed, with portraits of Lenin and a Soviet Union map hanging on the walls. In the center of the long table was the just-translated telegraph, surrounded by core decision-makers. The air was filled with tension and unease.
Nikita picked up the telegraph, his tone dissatisfied: “Comrades, Kennedy sent us this telegraph. The question is simple: ‘What is your explanation for Cuba’s military deployment?’ What does he mean? He’s probing us, wanting us to reveal our cards ourselves. How should we reply?”
Gromyko slowly put down the telegraph, his tone steady: “Nikita Sergei, this is a carefully designed question from the White House. Kennedy didn’t directly accuse us or mention missiles, which shows he’s probing our attitude.
I think we should emphasize that our actions in Cuba are defensive, helping Cuba resist America’s threats, while avoiding directly admitting the existence of missiles.”
Actually, it wasn’t any carefully designed thing; the White House senior officials’ discussion probably didn’t even take an hour.
This world is just one big makeshift operation.
Malinovsky’s tone was tough, fists clenched as he slammed the table: “Defensive? Why cover it up? We’re deploying missiles in Cuba to protect Cuba, to prevent America from launching another invasion like the Bay of Pigs.
Kennedy knows it in his heart! We should tell him straightforwardly that this is a response to their missile deployments in Italy and Turkey.”
Mikoyan smiled and shook his head: “Comrade Malinovsky, your stance is firm, but the tone is too hardline. Kennedy is very tense right now; he might already be considering military options. We need to give him a way out, make him feel we can negotiate rather than direct confrontation.”
Nikita frowned, pondered for a moment: “I agree with Mikoyan’s view. We can’t let Kennedy think we’re provoking, but we can’t appear weak either. We need a reply that’s both firm and flexible, letting him know our actions in Cuba have legitimate reasons while leaving some leeway.”
Biriuzov spoke coldly: “The missiles are already deployed and ready to launch at any time. We have sufficient deterrence and don’t need to yield. If they dare move, we’ll make them pay the price.”
Nikita glared at Biriuzov, his tone stern: “Comrade Biriuzov, nuclear war is no child’s play! Do you think pressing the button solves everything? That would drag the whole world into the abyss! We must be cautious and not rashly use the ultimate threat!”
Gromyko nodded in agreement: “Sergei is right. I suggest our reply highlight helping Cuba, stating our aid is to protect Cuba from aggression. At the same time, we can hint that if America is willing to discuss broader disarmament issues, we’re also willing to participate. This maintains our position while opening a door for negotiation.”
Malinovsky waved his hand impatiently: “Disarmament? Talking disarmament now is too hypocritical! The Americans deployed missiles in Turkey, threatening our security. We should directly demand they withdraw missiles first, as an exchange condition, and then we’ll consider Cuba’s deployment.”
Mikoyan persuaded: “Comrade Malinovsky, your suggestion makes sense, but the timing isn’t right. If we propose exchange conditions now, Kennedy will feel we’re blackmailing him. We should leave room for maneuver.”
Nikita took a deep breath, fingers tapping the desk:
“I understand. Our reply can’t be weak or provocative. We need to let Kennedy know our actions in Cuba are to protect an ally and defend against threats from America. At the same time, we can hint that if America is willing to talk about global security issues, we’re not opposed.”
Gromyko picked up a pen, ready to record: “Specifically, we can reply like this: ‘The Soviet Union’s aid in Cuba is to help the Cuban government strengthen its defensive capabilities against external threats. Our actions have no intention of threatening America’s security, but we hope America will also respect Cuba’s sovereignty. If America is willing to discuss military deployments and disarmament issues on a global scale, the Soviet Union is willing to participate in the dialogue.'”
Malinovsky frowned discontentedly: “This sounds too soft. We should be tougher, reminding Kennedy that your missiles in Turkey are equally threatening us.”
Nikita waved his hand to interrupt: “Comrade Malinovsky, now is not the time. We can’t mention Turkey directly in the first telegraph; we can bring up this condition in subsequent negotiations.”
Mikoyan nodded: “We first steady Kennedy with a vague but sincere reply, making him feel we can talk. Then we see his next reaction and decide how to adjust our strategy.”
Nikita was silent for a moment, then nodded: “Alright, go with this approach. Gromyko, draft the telegraph, emphasize defensiveness, hint at negotiation possibilities, but don’t commit to anything specific. We want Kennedy to figure it out himself.”
Gromyko stood up, tone firm: “Understood. I’ll draft the telegraph quickly and submit it for your review.”
Nikita: “Meeting adjourned. Hope Kennedy stays rational and doesn’t back us into a corner.”
After the telegraph was sent to the Kremlin, the White House waited for the Kremlin’s reply. Lin Ran privately found Kennedy, “Mr. President, I have a better idea.
I believe the Kremlin will be interested in this negotiation condition.”
Kennedy clearly became interested upon hearing this: “Let’s hear it.”
Lin Ran said: “That is, the White House withdraws the missile bases in Italy and Turkey.”
From Washington to conservative newspapers, talk of Lin Ran being a Soviet Union person was endless, but Kennedy had never doubted it before.
Now he really started to doubt.
His eyes narrowed; you dare to propose this condition.
Although this is double standards, America has always had double standards.
“Impossible!” Kennedy reflexively refuted.
Lin Ran said: “Mr. President, I’m not finished. This is our asking price.
Similarly, the other side must also agree to conditions.
That is, withdraw Cuba’s missiles, with America television stations live broadcasting the entire process.
Our missile withdrawal is private, secret withdrawal.
While their missile withdrawal is under the scrutiny of the global public; this is the White House’s great victory!
The Kremlin backs down, they fear competing with the White House; not only must their missiles in Cuba be withdrawn, but watched by Americans, supervised throughout the withdrawal.
This is a fair agreement for both sides, and we also win face.”
This is actually the final resolution version of the Cuban Missile Crisis.
After prolonged wrangling, the agreement both sides ultimately reached was about this.
America orally promised to withdraw missiles from Italy and Turkey, with Robert Kennedy personally explaining to the Soviet Union ambassador in Washington D.C. that the president was under pressure from the military and the Executive Committee and couldn’t issue a written agreement, but would guarantee to fulfill it.
The Soviet Union agreed to withdraw missiles under America surveillance, Cuba opened airspace over some ports, allowing America’s reconnaissance planes to fly low and close to photograph the intermediate-range missile loading process. Kennedy used this opportunity to have public media live broadcast the entire process on television.
But Lin Ran’s proposal, if put forward now, is a proposal, but without the tension atmosphere buildup, it seems somewhat untimely.
“I’ll consider it seriously.” Kennedy said noncommittally.
