Chapter 183: Probability Of Success
Yuri Gagarin struggled to move under simulated lunar gravity, attempting to connect the fuel pipe.
At present, there are mainly two ways to simulate the low lunar gravity environment.
Underwater training, using water buoyancy combined with adjustable simulation equipment to achieve the effect of one-sixth gravity. This method is particularly suitable for simulating the slow, floating sensation of astronauts moving and operating on the lunar surface.
The other method is a venue created with a suspension system and air cushion, using ropes, pulleys, and spring systems to suspend the astronaut or equipment, offsetting part of the body weight.
Under current technology, the second method has quite a few problems.
It can only provide limited freedom in the horizontal direction, and it’s hard to fully simulate the complex terrain of the lunar surface. Having ropes suspending the astronaut also easily interferes with the smoothness of movements.
However, this doesn’t prevent simulation training through these two methods.
At this time, Gagarin was suspended by ropes, using the model provided by America for training.
Korolev commanded via walkie-talkie: “Yuri, be careful, the pipe is very fragile.”
Gagarin replied panting: “I know, but the gloves are too thick, the operation is too difficult.”
Korolev frowned and pressed the walkie-talkie: “Yuri, you’re doing great.
Take a break, and we’ll try again.”
He thought to himself: “The fuel system must be simplified; the lunar surface environment will only be more complex than our simulation.
If it’s still this complex on the moon, we’re done for.
We haven’t even considered extreme temperature differences or the complex lunar surface yet.”
While Gagarin was still training in the simulation environment, Korolev had already gone ahead to the meeting room for a remote call with NASA.
“Randolph, your designed fuel system isn’t simple enough yet; it’s too difficult to operate.”
At this time, both sides were on 24-hour standby, communicating via overseas phone calls whenever issues arose.
On NASA’s side, a secretary specifically notified Lin Ran; similarly, on the Soviet side, someone specifically notified Korolev.
All to avoid wasting time and ensure they could find people and solve problems at the first moment.
After Korolev finished describing Gagarin’s test situation, a calm voice came from the phone:
“Sorry, just practice more. We’ve simplified the operation as much as possible while ensuring redundancy.
If we want to further reduce operational difficulty, we’d have to sacrifice redundancy.
For example, change the double seal mechanism to a single-layer seal mechanism, so Gagarin only needs to open one layer during operation.
Or don’t fill the fuel tank with nitrogen, and eliminate the dual fuel lines.
But Korolev, we know redundancy is more important than ease of operation.
We must ensure that.
Anything can happen on the moon, right?
A little more redundancy means a higher chance Gagarin comes back.”
After a moment of silence, Lin Ran’s voice sounded again: “Forgot to tell you, remember to add color to the model we gave you.
It should be simpler to operate after coloring.”
Korolev asked puzzled: “Coloring?”
Lin Ran replied: “That’s right.
On the final actual item, whether valves, connectors, or lines, we’ll use color coding.
Red for the main valve, green for the backup valve, blue for the connector, designs like that to help Gagarin identify the fastest.
Including on the fuel tank and lunar module surface, we’ll attach a simple instruction manual, so even if he forgets what to do at the first moment, he can quickly recall.
Because I thought these could be sent to you via telegraph, and you could add them yourselves, NASA didn’t waste time on it.
Also, the model’s interfaces will use a threaded steel locking mechanism to increase friction, so he won’t slip easily.
Anyway, the current model is just a simple version; on the day of actual operation on the moon, Gagarin will definitely find it simpler, not more complex.”
After hearing this, Korolev patted his head; no wonder he felt something was missing when he saw the model.
It was the lack of color coding.
Color coding originated in the 1950s, when wire color standards were first established to ensure safety and efficiency in electrical engineering.
Later widely used in transportation, maps, icons, and industrial equipment fields, naturally including aerospace engineering.
Nowadays, color coding has become an indispensable tool to help engineers and operators quickly identify complex equipment and systems.
“Good, I get your point, Randolph. When will the color coding and simple instruction manual be sent?” Korolev asked.
Lin Ran said: “In half an hour, we still have a few final details to confirm.”
At this time in NASA’s meeting room, the coffee cups on the desk were all empty; the secretary didn’t have time to refill them, as everyone was using coffee as fuel for carbon-based life.
Lin Ran took a deep breath, scanned the crowd, thinking to himself: “Korolev is eager for these documents; we absolutely cannot make mistakes in the details.”
He said slowly and deeply: “Everyone, Korolev just asked about the progress on color coding and the simple instruction manual.
I promised to send them in half an hour, but before that, we must ensure all details are flawless.”
Actually, in role-playing within NASA, the most important thing is to abandon one’s language habits from the first twenty-plus years of life.
Fortunately, Lin Ran adapted well and didn’t blurt out “Comrade Korolev” in front of the NASA engineers.
Mary Jones pushed up her glasses, tone firm:
“Professor, for color coding, we’ve designed a standardized proposal. But I’m worried if Soviet engineers are familiar with our coding system.”
Lin Ran said: “If their system differs from ours, misunderstandings could lead to serious consequences.”
He turned to another engineer Tom: “Tom, you’re in charge of liaising with Soviet engineers; confirm they understand our color coding.”
Tom nodded, fingers flying on the keyboard to record: “Understood, I’ll prepare a detailed color coding diagram with English and Russian explanations.”
Mary continued: “For the instruction manual, we’ve completed the simple version, including operating steps and precautions. But considering the lunar environment, do we need special notes on dust prevention and temperature control?”
Lin Ran pondered for a moment, picturing astronauts operating on the lunar surface, weighing internally: “Harsh environment, these details must be included.”
Lin Ran nodded: “Yes, Mary, be sure to emphasize the use of dust covers and the importance of temperature control.”
Tom interjected: “Professor, time is tight; can we send a preliminary version first and supplement later?”
Lin Ran shook his head decisively, tone firm: “No, the Soviets need the complete version. Half-finished work would damage cooperation trust.”
He resolved internally: “Must get it right in one go.”
Mary nodded in agreement: “I agree. Should we add emergency procedures to the instruction manual?”
Lin Ran responded immediately: “Must have. Add emergency handling steps for fuel leaks and valve failures.”
Tom quickly recorded: “Understood, I’ll ensure the instruction manual covers all emergencies.”
Lin Ran glanced at his watch, heart tightening: “Only twenty-five minutes left.”
He decisively assigned tasks: “Mary, you’re responsible for final confirmation of color coding; Tom, you’re responsible for layout and translation of the instruction manual; other assistants support them.”
Mary and Tom responded together: “Yes, Professor.”
Gagarin stood beside the fuel tank model, holding a simple instruction manual with clear operating steps and diagrams on the paper pages.
He looked down and scanned, noticing the color coding on the fuel tank: red for the main valve, green for the backup valve, blue for the connector.
The paint smell stimulated his sense of smell; Gagarin thought to himself: “These improvements are great, much simpler than operating from memory before. Why wasn’t it there yesterday? Were they deliberately making it hard for me?”
Following the first step in the instruction manual, he bent down, grabbed the blue connector, aligned it with the fuel tank interface, pushed hard with his fingers, and it locked with a “click.”
He looked up at Korolev on the observation deck, showing a satisfied smile.
Korolev said via walkie-talkie: “Comrade Gagarin, connector docking successful, proceed to the next step.”
Gagarin nodded, voice firm: “Understood, Comrade Korolev.”
He turned to the valve area, fingers lightly touching the red main valve, confirming it was closed.
Then, he opened the green backup valve, ensuring the fuel lines were clear.
His movements were smooth and precise; while operating, he quickly glanced at the instruction manual to verify the steps.
The training instructor recorded nearby, while Korolev watched Gagarin’s every movement closely, nodding internally: “Color coding and instruction manual make operations much more intuitive, drastically reducing error risk.”
Finally, Gagarin opened the red main valve, and simulated fuel began flowing.
His gaze locked on the pressure gauge, the needle steady in the normal range.
He breathed a sigh of relief, a sense of achievement surging: “This operation was smoother than ever before.”
After completing the operation, Gagarin wiped the sweat from his forehead and strode toward the observation deck.
Korolev put down the telescope, a rare smile on his face, and walked down the steps to greet him.
Korolev asked: “Comrade Gagarin, how does it feel? How’s the effect of the new markings and instruction manual?”
Gagarin said relaxedly: “Very good, Comrade Korolev. Color coding lets me spot key components at a glance; the instruction manual is concise and clear, giving me much more confidence during operation.”
Korolev patted Gagarin’s shoulder: “Good, this is the latest change from the America team.”
Gagarin smiled and said: “I completely understand; our cooperation was so sudden, leaving very limited time for both sides.
Hope it’s this smooth on the moon.”
Korolev’s tone grew serious: “It will be; our preparations are getting more sufficient.”
Korolev said: “Alright, testing in Earth environment is done; now we start training in the simulation environment. Yuri, you understand: the more thorough our training, the lower the probability of errors.”
Gagarin looked at the training field, nodded, the image of the lunar surface emerging in his mind, full of expectation.
“Moon landing also depends on time nodes, because our technology is limited; we can’t succeed with launches anytime anywhere.
Actually, launch heavily depends on time nodes, needing a suitable time window.”
Three days before the moon landing, Lin Ran finally met Jenny, who had rushed from Washington to Huntsville City.
Jenny originally thought Lin Ran would be exhausted with dark circles, looking utterly worn out, but unexpectedly he looked the same as usual.
“Professor, so our time window this year is December 21st?” Jenny asked.
Lin Ran nodded: “Correct, to be precise, there are two suitable time windows this year: one is July 20th, when the moon’s phase is full, lunar near side facing Earth.
Favorable for lunar module landing and Earth-moon communication.
But unfortunately, the weather that day wasn’t suitable; it was thunderstorm weather.”
With global attention and America doing a live television broadcast, the moon landing launch time had long been publicized by media for everyone to know.
At least over ninety percent of the public planned to take leave that December 21st to stay home and watch the live television broadcast.
European and Soviet public were the same.
Among them, major European television stations had bought rebroadcast authorization from America.
“Originally, the Soviets planned for the 15th, but because of our cooperation, the time was changed to the 21st, delayed by six days,” Lin Ran continued.
This was firsthand news from NASA’s formal director and the Soviet Space Agency’s temporary director, exclusive to the New York Times.
Other newspapers were already trying to poach Jenny with editor-in-chief treatment.
Only because Jenny was Hearst did she remain unmoved by such trifles.
“Professor, is it because preparation time was insufficient?
As far as I know, the global public is silently praying for Gagarin, hoping he returns safely.
During this time, there have been many expert science programs on TV about the moon landing; everyone is generally pessimistic about him returning alive,” Jenny asked.
She asked this partly out of genuine curiosity, partly due to reporter habits; this could be a feature report in the New York Times: NASA insiders say ***.
Is there anyone more authoritative than the professor?
Lin Ran said: “Oh, no no no, the delay isn’t because preparations weren’t sufficient; six more or less days makes little difference for such a mission.
The delay is because we need to overlap on the moon landing.
We’re not launching from the same location; we launch from different bases, so we need to select a position ensuring we land at similar points after launch.
So the time has to be adjusted accordingly.
This is a time point I carefully calculated, raising the success rate by at least 20%!”
Lin Ran thought internally: This was calculated using the best computing card cluster from New York University in 2020; it’s the limit of what I can do.
“So Professor, is it really as outside experts say, only a 10% probability of successfully returning to Earth?”
