Chapter 99: Strategic Vision
“My task is to help America take the lead in the Space Race, and accepting interviews must be done without affecting this task.
Additionally, I met Korolev this time, and he expressed approval for my space station plan. I believe the Soviet Union will also advance its own space station plan. I suggest that between the moon landing and the space station, we need to make a trade-off.”
Lin Ran did not directly answer Kennedy’s suggestion about him accepting more interviews, but instead brought up the Space Race.
This is because Lin Ran was very clear that his current base was still NASA.
Without NASA, everything else is empty talk.
America can tolerate NASA’s continuous failures due to the pressure of the Space Race, and can give German Scientists status, money, and honor, and can do the same for him.
So no matter how much the extreme conservative media smears Lin Ran, or how much the Elephant Party congressmen chatter in Congress, it cannot cause any substantial trouble for Lin Ran.
Even these petty complaints won’t reach his ears.
“Professor Lin, is it possible for us to advance both lines together?
To surpass the Soviet Union in both areas?” Lyndon Johnson asked.
Lin Ran said: “The budget is insufficient. Some technologies between them can be shared, such as spacecraft docking in space, but there are more differences.
For example, the systems for sustaining life in space, ensuring astronauts can still survive in space, have different requirements for space stations and moon landings.
The moon landing roughly only needs to ensure about a week, while the space station needs much longer.
Even spacecraft docking in space is more complex for space stations because it might involve several modules assembled together like building blocks.
Modular design is needed.
In space, space stations need to consider docking between assemblies and single units, while moon landings only need to consider single-to-single docking, and the difficulties are different.
Additionally, the docking system for moon landings is designed for short-term lunar missions, usually completed within days to two weeks. The docking interfaces do not need to consider durability issues from long-term exposure to the space environment.
While the space station’s docking system needs to support modular assembly and long-term operation. Docking ports must withstand multiple uses and maintain functional integrity in the space environment.
The space station’s system design even needs to consider spacecraft resupply and emergency evacuation needs.
It has to be much more complex.
So advancing both simultaneously is not very realistic.”
After hearing this, everyone felt a bit dizzy and vaguely sensed something was off.
Because they read into it the implication of increasing the budget.
“If we want to advance both, we need to increase the budget. The current plan’s 1.8 billion US Dollars is not enough,” Lin Ran said. “At least increase it to 3 billion US Dollars.”
Previously, NASA proposed increasing the budget to 2 billion US Dollars, which was cut a bit by Congress, and 1.8 billion US Dollars was already very high.
50% more than the original 1.2 billion US Dollars.
Now Lin Ran wanted more, and everyone instinctively got scared:
“Professor Lin, enough is enough, it’s impossible to increase it that much.
3 billion is too exaggerated.”
“Exactly, 3 billion is unrealistic. The federal total budget is only about 12 billion, and this would take 25% of the federal total budget. Even if we agree, Congress won’t pass it.”
Lin Ran continued: “I know it’s impossible, so I think we need a focus.
The space station and moon landing need a priority order.
In the next three years, which aspect our resources should be invested in.”
Kennedy set the tone: “Still focus on the moon landing.”
After all, whether in speeches, interviews, or in Congress, he had declared to achieve the moon landing within this decade.
No matter how appealing the space station is, the moon landing comes first.
Moreover, for the audience of this Space Race, the moon landing is undoubtedly the most impressive.
Even if the space station has more practical benefits, everyone only looks at the results.
“Good, NASA will go all out.
Next year we will achieve phased achievements. The Mariner Program will launch a probe to leap over Mars and transmit photos of Mars.
This will be the first time we surpass the Soviet Union in the field of aerospace.”
Although the Pioneer Probe was the first to transmit photos of the moon’s sky, the Soviet Union’s Luna 3 also photographed the far side of the moon.
The Pioneer Probe’s surpassing was more on a nominal level.
It was widely disseminated in the media of America and its allies, but completely unrecognized in the other camp.
But if they could bring back Mars photos, that would be an indisputable surpassing.
“Good, Randolph, with you here, I’m relieved.
Additionally, we all want to hear about your hotline design. We’re all very interested in this idea.” Kennedy continued to ask.
This was the biggest focus of today.
The “hotline” concept has gained widespread recognition. The vast majority of the public believes there should be such a thing between the two nuclear powers to avoid humanity heading toward destruction.
So the White House, having just experienced the painful failure of the Bay of Pigs Invasion, naturally wants to score a point internationally.
The hotline was proposed by White House bureaucrats; this is the White House’s merit.
And inviting Lin Ran to the White House to discuss this is also to make the entire plan clearer, as he is the originator of this concept.
“Of course, I mentioned it in interviews, so everyone should have a preliminary concept.
I think this can reduce tension, the last firewall to avoid humanity’s destruction.
I still hold this attitude.
In the recent period, whether the Soviet Union continues nuclear tests, or we plan to start nuclear tests.
Essentially, it’s all about building nuclear deterrence, deterring the other side, telling them I have the ability to destroy you.
In this process, many people have mentioned that the role of nuclear weapons is threat rather than actual use.”
Not entirely, they have been used.
The only two nuclear weapons were used on Japan.
Before the bombing, Japan’s public friendliness toward America was 1%; after, it was 99%.
To reflect on why Japan is unfriendly to China, you can refer to what America did.
“After my visit to Europe this time, I think we can push this concept further, calling it nuclear balance.
Both we and the other side possess large numbers of nuclear weapons, including intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, giving both sides the ability to inflict devastating strikes on each other.
We should ensure both sides accept the concept of mutual assured destruction, meaning both have the ability to carry out devastating retaliation after suffering a nuclear attack, thereby deterring the other from using nuclear weapons first.
Once everyone knows the other has such capability and the nuclear balance concept is established, the risk of humanity erupting into nuclear war will be greatly reduced.
And the hotline is the final link in nuclear balance.
Everyone can think of nuclear balance as a scale. The scale maintains a static state; if it tips to either side, it could lead to loss of control.
It being balanced in the middle is the best.
But in the real world, our strength and the Soviet Union’s cannot be exactly equal, just like you can’t pick up two pebbles of exactly the same weight on the beach.
Moreover, our nuclear deterrence capabilities on both sides are a dynamic changing process.
At such times, to keep the scale balanced, the best way is for two people to apply force to the scale with their hands to hold it in balance.
The hotline plays this role, letting Mr. President and the other leader put their hands together on the scale.”
Lin Ran’s “hotline” concept was further refined.
This time he pushed the nuclear deterrence concept further to mutual assured destruction (MAD), which was also the core idea of the nuclear balance concept in the mid-1960s.
The current defense minister McNamara, who originally wouldn’t propose the MAD concept until 1965, felt this idea was too ingenious after hearing it. In the complex reality, he found a rare path to peace:
“Mr. President, I believe Professor Lin’s proposal has quite high feasibility.
This will also help global public recognize that America pursues peace and has the determination to compete with the Soviet Union on the basis of peace.”
This sounded a bit too fake.
Just caused the Bay of Pigs event on the front foot, and now saying we pursue peace on the back foot.
But not surprising; which senior official mixing in the White House doesn’t have the ability to swallow insults and keep a straight face.
Observing bureaucrats’ resumes, you’ll find those who truly been on the front lines are more inclined to hope for peace, while those who haven’t been on the battlefield front lines tend to be more bellicose.
McNamara is the best case. During his White House tenure, his prior resume was only army service, doing statistics work.
So later he single-handedly pushed the Vietnam War, even creating the McNamara Fallacy.
McNamara Fallacy, a formal fallacy describing the phenomenon of overusing data to evaluate things.
He believed quantifiable research could understand why America was losing in the Vietnam War, using quantitative data like enemy kill counts to measure tactical success.
Americans were numb; even a 1:2 battle damage ratio in Vietnam’s jungles was winning to the point of numbness in McNamara’s view.
He believed in the extremely abstract idea that “in the abstract sense, one soldier is roughly equivalent to others, so through proper training and superior equipment, any soldier can become a positive factor in the mathematics of war.”
Having such an abstract superior as minister in the White House, no wonder the anti-Vietnam War voices were so loud later.
Even more abstractly, after fighting, he turned anti-war, saying in his late memoir that we were wrong, ridiculously wrong.
Now he agrees with Lin Ran’s viewpoint, partly because it makes sense and is useful to the White House, and partly because he admires Lin Ran.
The kind of admiration from the bottom of his heart.
Personal emotions often play a decisive role.
Among the White House bureaucrats present, if everyone’s friendliness to Lin Ran is because of his reputation, prestige, and ability to help America win the Space Race, only McNamara is convinced by his brain.
When he learned Kennedy was appointing Lin Ran as special assistant for White House affairs, he told his wife Margaret to celebrate well, leaving his wife baffled, thinking he was becoming vice president.
Including many opposing voices within the Elephant Party, which McNamara smoothed over; he is an Elephant Party member.
No way around it; a data analyst who believes in data is like a Shudra encountering a Brahmin in front of a pure mathematics master.
After hearing Lin Ran’s suggestion, McNamara’s inner admiration grew even stronger.
“Mr. President, colleagues, Professor Lin’s concept is based on the ‘rational actor’ hypothesis, but while we can achieve this rationality, whether the other side can is unknown.”
McNamara’s admiration for Lin Ran even led him to study Professor Horkheimer’s philosophical thought. The rational actor concept mentioned here comes from Horkheimer’s Dialectic of Enlightenment.
“I approve Professor Lin’s proposal, but we also need to repeatedly emphasize through speeches, promotion, and tests:
We possess highly reliable capability to achieve nuclear balance, which can cause unacceptable damage to any single aggressor or combination of aggressors at any time during strategic nuclear exchange, even after a surprise attack.
Our assured destruction capability needs to be fully understood by the other side.
Exactly, the key is understanding that assured destruction is the essence of the entire deterrence concept.
We must possess actual assured destruction capability, and this capability must also be credible.
And make them believe our willingness to use it for retaliation is unwavering.”
After the discussion ended, Kennedy summarized: “I will push this forward as soon as possible.
First, I’ll release the signal externally, expressing hope to establish direct communication with the other side.
Also, have Charles C. Stelle communicate privately with the Soviet side in Geneva as representative.
To push this matter.
Kenneth, note this down. Remember to emphasize with the White House Press Secretary and external media that this is the White House’s merit.
This is the White House’s effort in pursuing peace.
This is not a concession.
America’s media must stay consistent on this point.
Additionally, Randolph, your suggestion is excellent.
The Times is right; you deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.
The White House will propose to Sweden’s Nobel Committee for next year’s Nobel Peace Prize recipient.”
Lin Ran didn’t refuse, not because the prize is rare or he wants it badly.
By 2020, Chinese people had long demystified the Nobel Peace Prize, even the literature prize.
The reason Lin Ran wants it is very simple: no mathematician has won the Nobel Peace Prize.
Bertrand Russell won the literature prize, John Nash the economics prize, Joseph Rotblat won the peace prize for anti-nuclear efforts, but he was a physicist, not a mathematician.
“Professor Lin, I’d like to invite you to lunch. Do you have time?” After the meeting ended, McNamara quietly approached Lin Ran, who was packing his notebook, and asked softly.
Lin Ran felt baffled and sensed eagerness in his eyes. He thought he had no private connection with this minister.
But he knew the other was definitely high-ranking and powerful.
After joining the White House, Lin Ran had carefully collected information on all White House bureaucrats at this time point, knowing the man before him was America’s longest-serving defense minister in history, who after leaving the White House served 13 years as World Bank president, with an extremely strong network.
“I have time.” Lin Ran didn’t refuse, thinking to meet force with force and water with earth.
