Chapter 239: Anglo-russian Conflict, German Neutrality
While the Spanish Government was discussing actions against Portugal, the situation on the Balkan Peninsula, which had been calm for several months, finally descended into chaos once again.
In mid-to-late February 1878, the Russian Government forced the Ottoman Empire to sign the 《Treaty of San Stefano》, attempting to end the war at the fastest possible speed to avoid interference from the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire with the war’s outcome.
The contents of this treaty had already been discussed in advance by Russian Foreign Secretary Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov and Tsar Alexander II, leaving the Ottoman Empire, which had collapsed like a landslide in defeat, with no choice whatsoever.
According to this treaty signed by both sides, the Ottoman Empire would be forced to recognize the complete independence of Montenegro, Serbia, and Romania, and to acknowledge the autonomy status of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Bosnia and Herzegovina would remain within the Ottoman territory as an autonomous region, but both countries would handle their own internal affairs, with the Ottoman Empire having no right to intervene.
Additionally, a Greater Bulgaria would be established in southern Romania, and the Ottoman Empire would have to allow Russian forces legitimate activities in the Bulgaria region.
The Ottoman Empire would also have to return the southwestern region of Bessarabia to Russia and cede Kars, Batum, Ardahan, and Bayazit to Russia.
In addition to territorial changes, the Russian Government demanded that the Ottoman Empire revise the passage rules for the Bosphorus Strait, requiring the Ottoman Empire to permanently permit warships from all Black Sea coastal countries, including Russia, to pass through the strait.
Originally, according to the Russians’ demands, the contents of this contract were to be strictly confidential in the short term to avoid opposition from the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
But the Ottoman Empire was no fool; its high-level officials knew that only the British could prevent the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire at this time.
Through the efforts of the Ottoman Empire’s high-level officials, the relevant contents of the 《San Stefano contract》 were also disclosed to the European media and learned by European Countries.
This immediately provoked strong dissatisfaction from the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire with the contract’s contents.
Austro-Hungarian Empire Emperor Franz Joseph I could no longer sit still and ordered the government to take a firm stance in criticizing the contract, while issuing a regional mobilization order.
The Russians had gained vast amounts of land in the contract and could indirectly control Montenegro, Serbia, and Romania through support for independence.
What about the Austro-Hungarian Empire? Bosnia and Herzegovina, which the Russians had promised to the Austro-Hungarian Empire before launching the war, had only obtained autonomous status and still remained within the Ottoman Empire’s territory.
This also meant that if the contract’s provisions were followed, the Austro-Hungarian Empire could only watch as Russia continuously expanded its influence on the Balkan Peninsula while being forced to withdraw from the struggle for dominance on the Balkan Peninsula.
Equally extremely dissatisfied was the British Empire. Although this treaty did not grant Russia control over Constantinople, it did give Russia freedom of passage through the straits.
Without restrictions from the straits, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet would be able to head south to the Mediterranean Sea without restraint, thereby disrupting the British layout at the two Mediterranean estuaries.
The British ambitions were vast. After obtaining control of the Suez Canal, they had already achieved actual control over the Mediterranean Sea.
With both eastern and western estuaries in British hands, Mediterranean countries wanting to exit the Mediterranean would still depend on the British attitude.
The British greatly enjoyed this attitude and were unwilling for any country to disrupt the existing system, let alone Russia, which had intense competition with the United Kingdom.
After the Austro-Hungarian Empire announced partial mobilization, the United Kingdom directly dispatched the Royal Fleet to the Straits of Constantinople and convened a diplomatic conference, solemnly declaring that the 《San Stefano contract》 signed by Russia and the Ottoman Empire was illegal and a one-sided extortion by Russia against the Ottoman Empire.
The strong attitudes of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the United Kingdom put immense pressure on Russia for the time being, leaving Tsar Alexander II with no choice but to place hopes on his ally, the German Empire.
The Germans were also in a difficult position at this time. Their two allies were on the verge of falling out over the Balkan Peninsula issue, and Germany choosing either one would undermine Chancellor Bismarck’s policy of isolating France.
But failing to take a stance would not only disheartens the two allies but could also affect Germany’s international status in Europe.
This kind of conflict between great powers was precisely the moment to demonstrate a country’s status and international influence; if the Germans acted like cowards, the French would mock them for decades.
After careful consideration, German Chancellor Bismarck ultimately chose to mediate the conflict between the major great powers as a neutral intermediary.
This also demonstrated the abilities of Iron Chancellor Bismarck. No matter which side of the conflict Germany chose, it would seriously damage relations with the other.
But Germany could not stay out of it, so mediating the conflict as a neutral party was the most appropriate choice.
Germany also had sufficient strength to serve as this intermediary. The role of intermediary required not only sufficient international status and influence but also enough strength to make countries compromise with each other on relatively fair terms.
Without sufficient strength, mediation would result in a situation where countries treated it as mere wind past their ears.
After Germany announced it would mediate the conflict as an absolutely neutral intermediary, Russia effectively lost the initiative.
The current situation was Russia facing two opponents at once, one of which was the world’s most powerful country, the British Empire.
In such circumstances, even though Russia had completed control over the various countries of the Balkan Peninsula, it was forced to re-enter negotiations with the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
In late March 1878, at the invitation of the Germans, the British Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and Russia held a conference in Berlin to resolve the competition and conflict among the countries of the Balkan Peninsula.
As the world’s most powerful country, the British diplomatic representative righteously denounced the contract signed by Russia at the start of the conference and stated that the British Empire would absolutely not accept such a contract.
The British representative demanded a redrawing of the situation on the Balkan Peninsula and ensuring that the Bosphorus Strait remained under the Ottoman Empire’s control.
For this, the British also provided reasons. Because the Ottoman Empire had not lost Constantinople, the Bosphorus Strait should theoretically belong to the Ottoman Empire’s inland sea.
Since it was the Ottoman Empire’s inland sea, Russia naturally had no right to free passage through the straits.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire also put forward its own demands, requiring the annexation of Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Serbia, and changing the Greater Bulgaria proposed by Russia to a Lesser Bulgaria to avoid rapid expansion of Russian influence on the Balkan Peninsula.
Russian Foreign Secretary Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov, who attended this conference, turned extremely grim upon hearing the demands of the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
If the plans proposed by the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire were truly implemented, what was the purpose of Russia fighting this war?
After laboriously launching a war, all the benefits were taken by the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire—did Russia fight just to control a small Romania?
Although Russia appeared somewhat powerless in the face of pressure from the British Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, as Foreign Secretary Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov knew he could not actively shrink back.
Any sign of retreat from him would lead the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire to propose even more excessive demands. For Russia’s interests, he had to display a sufficiently tough attitude at this diplomatic conference, at least making the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire understand that Russia was not a fat sheep to be slaughtered at will.
“Gentlemen, we absolutely cannot accept your proposals. The 《Treaty of San Stefano》 is a ceasefire treaty signed between our country and the Ottoman Empire. All contents of the treaty are compensations from the Ottoman Empire to our country after its defeat, with nothing unreasonable about them,” Russian Foreign Secretary Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov could not help standing up to retort.
If he remained silent any longer, who could guarantee that the British and Austro-Hungarian Empire foreign secretaries opposite him would not make even more outrageous demands?
“Reasonable compensation for defeat?” The British diplomatic representative smiled disdainfully and said, “Wasn’t it your country that launched the war first? Your country started the war without any reason and expects the Ottoman Empire to bear the compensation for defeat—isn’t that an overlord clause?
The war has already taken the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ottoman Empire commoners; that is already the most powerful punishment for the Ottoman Empire.
I believe the Ottoman Empire was not at fault in this war, and the 《San Stefano contract needs to be revised; otherwise, our country will not recognize its legality.”
Thanks to the British Empire’s strength, the British diplomatic representative spoke with great confidence. Even facing Russian Foreign Secretary Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov, who was deeply trusted by Tsar Alexander II, he showed no fear whatsoever.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire’s diplomatic representative also nodded and chimed in: “Your country not only launched the war without reason but also completely failed to honor the agreement between our two countries before the war.
Our country’s 38 million public and Emperor Franz Joseph I are all extremely outraged by such betrayal of promises.
Like the United Kingdom, we do not recognize the legality of the 《San Stefano contract》 and demand that, under the witness of all present, we jointly revise this contract to ensure that the interests of all ethnic groups and countries involved are not affected.
Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov never imagined that his tough attitude would be met with an even tougher stance from the British and Austro-Hungarian Empire representatives.
To make the Russians obediently yield, the British representative and the Austro-Hungarian Empire representative successively expressed their hawkish attitudes.
The British representative stated that if the Russians did not agree to revise the 《San Stefano contract》, the next meeting between Britain and Russia would be at the negotiating table of war.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire stated that armies around Hungary had already begun mobilization. If Russia did not choose to yield in this conflict, the Austro-Hungarian Empire would declare war on Russia proactively.
Faced with the two countries’ almost naked war threats, Russian Foreign Secretary Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov ultimately hesitated.
If facing either the United Kingdom or the Austro-Hungarian Empire alone, Russia would not fear their war threats.
But there was no way around it; with the British Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire united, they feared no country in the world.
Not to mention Russia, whose industry was just starting; even Germany, Europe’s new powerhouse, or France, which had once dominated Europe, could not engage in calm dialogue without ripples.
The British Empire’s naval strength alone was enough to dominate the world, not to mention that the combined army strength of the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire could pose a serious threat to Russia.
The British Empire was famous for its navy, but that did not mean its army combat effectiveness was poor. Although not matching Germany and France, which dominated mainly with armies, among the major great powers, Britain’s army combat effectiveness was still solidly mid-to-upper tier.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire went without saying. Its dominant ethnic group, the Austrians—or southern Teutons—had formidable combat effectiveness, as could be seen from Germany’s army combat effectiveness.
Although Austrians did not make up a large proportion of the Austro-Hungarian Empire’s population, the army mixed with Austrians, Hungarians, and other minority ethnic groups would not be too underwhelming in combat effectiveness.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire’s biggest problem was the language barrier in armies composed of various ethnic groups. Not everyone had the extraordinary language talent of Emperor Franz Joseph I.
Of course, no matter how many domestic problems the Austro-Hungarian Empire had, it was one of Europe’s five traditional great powers with very strong overall strength.
Faced with the joint war threat from the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Russian diplomatic ambassador could only turn his gaze again to German Chancellor Bismarck, who was presiding over the conference.
Bismarck had long planned to maintain complete neutrality in this conference to avoid seriously damaging relations with Russia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
Seeing Russian diplomatic ambassador Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov look toward him, Bismarck could only subtly shake his head, indicating he was powerless in this matter.
Although he had long guessed Germany might remain unmoved, when Chancellor Bismarck shook his head at him, Russian diplomatic ambassador Alexander still involuntarily showed a disappointed expression.
Without Germany’s support, this meant Russia could only fend for itself in this conference—or rather, be at the mercy of the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
As Foreign Secretary, Alexander naturally understood Russia’s domestic attitudes and specific decision-making. Russia could not launch another war against the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, as it had already suffered heavy casualties in the Russo-Turkish War, along with massive military budget expenditures.
The Russo-Turkish War had lasted a year; fighting another war against the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, even if Russia could ultimately win, would be a completely unprofitable transaction.
Russia had ample population, so troop losses were not a major concern for the Russian Government.
But while troops were lost, weapons and ammunition were also being consumed frantically. Whether produced domestically or imported again from Spain, it was a huge military expense.
If the war could ultimately be won, Russia could console itself with the acquired land and control over Balkan countries.
But if the war ended in defeat, Russia would lose even its underwear.
Precisely because of this, even before attending the Berlin Conference, Tsar Alexander II had instructed the diplomatic ambassador to display a tough attitude in the early stages of negotiations to see if he could force the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire to shrink back.
If the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire were willing to force Russia to submit at the cost of war, then Russia could only obediently fall into the net and raise its hands in surrender.
Alas!
Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov sighed inwardly, then seemed to deflate entirely, instantly losing all spirit.
After struggling in expression for a few seconds, Alexander helplessly said: “Very well, as you say, respected envoys. Russia is willing to revise the 《San Stefano contract》, but on the premise that our country’s interests also receive sufficient respect.”
Seeing that the Russian diplomatic ambassador had chosen to yield, the British and Austro-Hungarian Empire representatives exchanged glances, both seeing a hint of amusement in each other’s eyes.
Although they had already crushed Russia in overall strength by uniting, that did not mean they wanted to erupt into war with Russia.
What was most headaches about Russia was its vast population, representing millions-strong armies. If this behemoth Russia was truly enraged and mobilized millions of troops, wouldn’t the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire have to mobilize millions to maintain battlefield superiority?
Even if they could win the war that way, the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire would suffer considerable losses.
Especially the Austro-Hungarian Empire, which, without many colonies, would have to mobilize from its own population.
Among the Austro-Hungarian Empire’s many ethnic groups, the most reliable in combat were the Austrian troops. If Austrian troop losses were heavy in the war, even the Austro-Hungarian Empire’s stability could be affected.
The reason the Austro-Hungarian Empire was dismembered into several countries after World War I was largely because the heavily depleted Austria could no longer control Hungary.
Only by constantly maintaining the dominant ethnic group’s advantage over minority ethnic groups could a country achieve long-term stability.
This also highlighted the importance of colonies. Colonial armies from indigenous armed forces in colonies, though not strong in combat effectiveness, made excellent cannon fodder.
Even a 10-to-1 battle damage ratio was not a loss for many colonial countries. Ten colonial indigenous people were definitely not worth one native citizen, except for those countries with already massive populations.
For Spain, it would rather lose all indigenous population than see its native population decrease by a million.
Not to mention that war losses were the extremely valuable young and strong labor force, whose value could not be measured by indigenous population.
5000-word two-in-one chapter, seeking support!
