Chapter 264: Colony Exchange
“Any news from the British?” Carlo looked at Prime Minister Cánovas, who had hurried in, and asked with a smile on his face.
After using the newspaper office to release related news, the Spanish Government had been closely monitoring the movements of the British Government.
The best outcome would be for the British to proactively propose an exchange for the Cuban Colony, allowing Spain to avoid a passive situation while securing more interests for itself.
The worst outcome would be for the British to remain silent, forcing the Spanish Government to proactively propose an exchange for the Cuban Colony to the British Government, falling into a passive position where the British would certainly bargain hard, as the value of the Cuban Colony was not low. If the British wanted an equal price exchange, they would have to give up several colonies.
“There is already news, Your Majesty.” Prime Minister Cánovas also smiled, clearly bringing good news: “British Prime Minister Gladstone has already raised the proposal regarding the exchange of the Cuban Colony in the Cabinet Meeting. The British Government may soon contact us proactively.”
Carlo nodded, feeling relieved.
Exchanging the Cuban Colony was something Carlo had promoted, but it carried some risks, as the British Government would not follow Carlo’s planned path.
The British Government of this era was quite greedy in its colonial expansion policies; after all, it was the most powerful country in the world, and no country could obstruct the expansion of the British Empire on its own.
Although Russia could threaten Britain in Central Asia and Western Asia, it was because Britain had not invested much energy there.
British colonies were spread across the globe, and their colonial expansion plans nearly covered the world as well. Africa and Asia went without saying, but even America had British footprints.
This also showed that Britain certainly had considerable ambitions for this land in Cuba. Historically, even if the United States did not seize it by force, Spain might not have been able to hold onto this land in Cuba.
Of course, Spain in this world was undoubtedly much stronger. Both Britain and the United States had lost the opportunity to seize Cuba by force.
But if they could acquire this large-area colony in Cuba through peaceful means, the British Government would surely be delighted.
This was also the source of Carlo’s confidence. As long as the British were willing to exchange for the Cuban Colony, the Spanish Government’s plan would not fail.
If the British had no ambitions for Cuba, Spain would have to exchange with other European countries or directly sell Cuba to the United States.
Carlo was quite confident about the value of the Cuban Colony.
Historically, during Spain’s extreme decline, the United States, to avoid war with Spain, had proposed purchasing the Cuban Colony for 150 million US Dollars.
Currency exchange rates before World War I did not fluctuate much; 150 million US Dollars was equivalent to 30 million Pound Sterling, 780 million Pesetas—an absolutely not insignificant sum.
Moreover, at that time, the world sugar market had already undergone significant changes. Due to the strong rise of the rubber industry, the value of Southeast Asian colonies had emerged, and the Cuban Colony was no longer as important.
Under such circumstances, the Cuban Colony was still worth at least 150 million US Dollars; at this time, its price could at least double.
If it were not worth that much, the historical Spanish Government would not have invested over 700 million Pesetas in military expenses during the Cuban War of Independence.
Even before launching the colonial exchange proposal, the Spanish Government had internally discussed the value of the Cuban Colony.
If exchanging colonies with the British, Spain’s conditions would be the British Gambia Colony, British Sierra Leone Colony, British Gold Coast, plus Spain’s colonial rights over the Trucial States, Sultanate of Muscat and Oman, and part of the mining rights in Western Australia, along with cash to make up the value.
On the surface, the land, terms, and cash Spain gained seemed plentiful, but in reality, these lands combined were not very valuable.
Britain’s three colonies in West Africa naturally went without saying, characterized by small scale, low population, and low economic value.
Even taking the Trucial States and Oman, these two lands were mostly desert with sparse population.
More importantly, these two lands were close to Britain’s Indian Colony, and the British might not be willing to cede them. Although they were not theirs, for the British, this land on the Arabian Peninsula had already entered their sphere of influence and would sooner or later be incorporated into the British Empire.
As for the mining rights in Western Australia, they were even more negligible in terms of Spain’s losses. Western Australia was too far from the Spanish Mainland; relying solely on its mineral supplies for the industrial development of the Spanish Mainland was completely unrealistic.
The industrial development of the Spanish Mainland would more rely on coal and iron ore from Africa, of course, and minerals from Brazil across the ocean.
Although Brazil’s iron ore had lower iron content than Australia’s, Brazil was also one of the world’s top three in iron ore reserves. Moreover, due to the advantage of being closer to the Spanish Mainland, Brazil was clearly more promising as Spain’s partner in mineral imports.
Of course, there was another important reason: Brazil was an independent country and could decide its own trade partners.
Western Australia, on the other hand, was just a colony. Whether it merged into Australia in the future or existed separately as Western Australia, it would be under the control of the British Government.
Would the British Government be willing to let Australia export large amounts of coal and iron ore to Spain every year? Of course not.
For Britain, the stronger Spain’s industry, the greater the threat to Britain.
Britain did not want a superpower on the level of Britain, France, and Germany to emerge on the Iberian Peninsula, as it would not only disrupt Britain’s strategic plans for the Mediterranean estuary but also affect the balance on the European Continent.
After all, although the Iberian Peninsula where Spain was located was somewhat enclosed, it was connected to the European Continent. As long as it was connected to the European Continent, Spain could influence the European situation.
The current European situation was already quite chaotic, and Britain did not want any country’s intervention to make it even more chaotic, completely destroying Britain’s Regional Balance Policy.
Currently, the three most powerful countries in the world were Britain, France, and Germany. Without Britain’s active involvement in European affairs, the fiercest confrontation on the European Continent was between France and Germany.
On the Balkan Peninsula, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Russia also occasionally sparked conflicts. Fortunately, Britain and Russia had significant contradictions as well, which masked the conflicts between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Russia.
Among these countries, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Russia, and Germany maintained the Three Emperors Alliance, while Russia also sought to befriend France, making the European situation quite complex and unpredictable.
As the most powerful European country besides these, Spain had a marital alliance with the Austro-Hungarian Empire and an alliance treaty on one hand, and on the other, its relationship with France was not too bad, with cooperation between the two countries.
Under such circumstances, no one could predict the next development of the European situation. The Three Emperors Alliance might continue, or it might split due to conflicts between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Russia.
The direction of the Three Emperors Alliance directly affected the European situation, because once it broke, France would spare no effort to pull Russia in, allowing itself to completely escape isolation.
This was also what the British wanted to see, as the current European situation was not favorable to them.
Britain had enmity with France, and seeing France isolated by the European Powers pleased the British. But the problem was, Britain and Russia also had deep-seated hatred.
Russia, relying on the Three Emperors Alliance, was faintly becoming a great power on the level of Britain, France, and Germany, and the Russo-Turkish War showed the Russians’ ambitions in land expansion.
Britain did not want the Three Emperors Alliance to continue, as it would not only destroy the Regional Balance Policy Britain had established but also create a larger gap between the originally evenly matched Germany and France.
Unless Italy and Spain sided with France, forming a French-Italian-Spanish alliance against Germany, Austria, and Russia.
Not to mention the strength gap between the two sides and whether the two major military blocs could successfully form, just the harm to Britain from the formation of a French-Italian-Spanish military alliance would make Britain determined to avoid such a situation.
The three great powers of France, Italy, and Spain had one thing in common: they were all Mediterranean Coastal Countries.
Once France, Italy, and Spain formed a military alliance, would Britain still have a say in the Mediterranean?
Britain was certainly powerful, and France in this era was not weak at all. Add to that the revitalized Spain and the strongly rising Italy, and unless Britain had help from other great powers, it would have to retreat far from this military bloc.
The current situation was also clear: through colonial exchange alone, Spain could not obtain land of equal value to the Cuban Colony.
Fortunately, Carlo’s goal was not Britain’s colonies in West Africa, but land in the Middle East.
Whether the Trucial States or Oman, as long as Spain could occupy a piece of land in the Middle East and gain a foothold, it would have hope of obtaining a large area rich in oil fields in the future.
The good news was that it would be a long time before petroleum was discovered in this Middle Eastern land. Even before World War I, Spain did not need to worry about the value of the land it occupied being exposed.
After experiencing World War I, Spain’s strength would also become much stronger. By then, even if large-scale oil fields were discovered one after another in the Middle East, Spain would not worry about being unable to hold the land.
Before oil fields were discovered, the land in the Middle East—except for the relatively fertile Mesopotamian Plain in Iraq—was mostly desert wastelands, fundamentally lacking development value.
This also meant that Spain still had hope of obtaining Middle Eastern land. Even if it could not get all of the Trucial States and Oman, acquiring any piece of land would fulfill Carlo’s plan.
Since the Spanish Government had a clear understanding of the value of the Cuban Colony, the subsequent negotiations with the British Government would have quite clear goals.
These conditions were the bottom line of the Spanish Government, the goals that must be achieved. On this basis, the diplomatic department also needed to make more efforts, as more land, funds, or other terms were certainly better.
As Prime Minister Cánovas had anticipated, a few days later, the British Government proactively contacted Spain, probing Spain’s attitude toward the Cuban Colony.
The reason the British Government took the initiative to inquire was naturally another piece of news from the Cuban Colony: the rebellion was about to be quelled.
If Spain quelled the rebellion again, it certainly would not give up the Cuban Colony so easily. The British side could only seize this opportunity; if Spain was really unwilling to give up the Cuban Colony, they would have to secretly cause greater problems for it, forcing the Spanish Government to abandon it.
The one approaching the British Ambassador was Prime Minister Cánovas. After hearing the probe from the British side, Prime Minister Cánovas did not rush but instead expressed reluctance to give up the Cuban Colony.
However, Prime Minister Cánovas’s attitude was not that firm, leaving just a slight opening for the British Ambassador.
The British Government did not suspect too much, as it had already communicated with the British Government. The British Ambassador thought that the Spanish side already had the idea of abandoning the Cuban Colony but was unwilling to let go due to fear of public opinion opposition.
Since the Spanish side already had the idea of abandoning the Cuban Colony, the next steps were easy: persuade Spanish Prime Minister Cánovas to agree to give it up and start colonial exchange negotiations between the British and Spanish Governments.
Spain was different from those small and medium countries or indigenous nations; because Spain had rejoined the ranks of great powers through reform, respect must be shown for its strength.
The British Government had no intention of using threats to force Spain to abandon the Cuban Colony, as it might backfire, making Spain more determined to defend it and severely damaging relations with Spain.
If he offended a great power right after taking office, it would not be good news for Gladstone. His proclaimed anti-war and anti-aggression policy would be completely overturned, as even his predecessor Prime Minister Disraeli did not dare to easily provoke disputes with great powers.
For the British Government’s step-by-step probing, Prime Minister Cánovas could see it clearly and was delighted inwardly.
For Spain, the more proactive the British were in the colonial exchange matter, the more initiative Spain could grasp.
Although Spain was the one wanting to exchange colonies, in this situation, Spain was not in a hurry.
After all, the current state of the Cuban Colony was relatively stable; as long as no major problems erupted, its value would not depreciate.
In fact, with the development of the Cuban sugar industry and population growth, the value of the Cuban Colony would increase.
If the British Government was unwilling to pay a high price, they would certainly choose to quickly carry out the colonial exchange during the period when the Cuban Colony’s value was damaged—recently, when chaos from small-scale rebellions made the situation unstable.
The British Ambassador probed step by step, and Prime Minister Cánovas loosened step by step. After all, Spain also wanted to carry out the colonial exchange; if he never loosened, what if the British Government gave up?
Under the mutual willingness and cooperation of both sides, the Spanish Government and British Government reached an agreement: British Prime Minister Gladstone and some government officials would conduct a diplomatic visit to Spain in early September, and both sides would reach negotiations on colonial exchange during the meeting in early September.
Of course, before the final negotiations concluded, both sides agreed not to release any news to avoid any external factors disrupting the negotiations.
After formally reaching the agreement with the British Government, Prime Minister Cánovas and Carlo could finally breathe a sigh of relief.
Next, they only needed to wait for the formal negotiations with the British Government to achieve the goal of colonial exchange.
This hot potato of the Cuban Colony could finally be handed off. Although on the surface Spain would suffer losses—after all, the acquired lands had little value—the actual losses were not as severe as imagined.
The profits the Cuban Colony brought to Spain were also continuously decreasing; factoring in the annual military expenses invested in Cuba, Cuba’s income would drop another level.
Although the exchanged colonies did not match Cuba in income, their strategic value might not be inferior to Cuba.
Especially the land in the Middle East, whether the Trucial States or Oman, was no less valuable than the Cuban Colony.
If they could acquire both colonies at the same time, Spain would absolutely profit immensely. Although the apparent interests were a loss, with the prestige the government gained from Spain’s reforms, it could ensure the public would not be too dissatisfied.
After all, the government had already opened up the Congo Territory spanning millions of square kilometers; what did losing a small Cuba matter?
