Chapter 272: Reasons For Declaring War
Tunisia’s ability to attract the attention of France and Italy is not without reason.
Besides being located in North Africa and facing France and Italy across the sea, among Tunisia’s 160,000 square kilometers of land, nearly 90,000 square kilometers are arable land, which is a quite exaggerated scale.
90,000 square kilometers equals 9 million hectares, 2395 million acres, and 135 million mu of land.
If calculated based on the scale of hundreds of jin per mu of grain yield in posterity, 135 million mu of land would produce at least 70 to 100 billion jin of grain annually, that is, between 35 million tons and 50 million tons.
Based on posterity’s grain consumption levels, this grain would be enough to feed over 100 million people. If based on the current world’s per capita grain consumption, just 35 million tons of grain would be enough to feed at least 120 million people.
Of course, the actual situation definitely cannot be calculated this way. Even if all 90,000 square kilometers of land were reclaimed into arable land, there would certainly be some losses.
Arable land must include canals, roads, farmers’ residences, living facilities, and a series of other building sites between plots of arable land, so the final reclaimed arable land definitely would not reach 90,000 square kilometers, and the current land yield per mu also cannot reach such an exaggerated level of hundreds of jin.
But it can be affirmed that if either France or Italy obtains Tunisia, they can fully possess this natural treasure land in Tunisia that can be vigorously developed.
Tunisia’s land currently cannot support over 100 million people, but with a little reclamation, providing grain sufficient to feed millions of people to Europe is no problem.
More importantly, although Tunisia belonged to the Ottoman Empire for a long time, it existed as a vassal rather than being annexed into the Ottoman Empire.
Tunisians live in a semi-nomadic and semi-agricultural manner, and the Tunisia region can not only serve as a grain production area but also as an overseas pasture, providing large amounts of grain and meat products to either France or Italy.
Although there is no specific data intelligence on Tunisia’s population, it can be affirmed that the entire population of Tunisia would not exceed 1 million, approximately between 600,000 and 800,
For France and Italy, annexing Tunisia would be very simple and easy to complete localization of Tunisia.
This is also one of the reasons Italy has its eye on Tunisia. For Italy, which does not have too large a population, controlling a piece of land that can be localized is definitely more attractive than a large colony tens of thousands of li away.
Moreover, Tunisia is right in front of Italy.
The closest point from the Apennine Peninsula to Italy’s Sardinia is about 200 kilometers away, while Sicily is only less than 150 kilometers from the Tunisian Peninsula, which completely counts as right at the doorstep.
As for why Italy has not been able to take this land right at its doorstep for so long, actually looking at a Mediterranean map makes it clear.
The Mediterranean stretches from the Strait of Gibraltar in the west to the western coast of the Arabian Peninsula in the east, with an exaggerated east-west span of over 3,600 kilometers.
The shape of the Mediterranean is like the number 7, and Italy is located at the corner of this number If Italy obtains Tunisia, the corner of the number 7 from south to north will be completely controlled by Italy.
This also means that Italy, which has already unified and become a great power, could at any time divide the vast Mediterranean into two.
Such a situation would not only disrupt the United Kingdom’s layout at the two east and west outlets of the Mediterranean but would also make the connection between France and its African colonies precarious.
This also leads to a relatively rare phenomenon, that is, regarding Italy’s colonization of Tunisia, both the United Kingdom and France maintain an attitude of opposition.
It is precisely because the United Kingdom and France united in opposing Italy’s colonization of Tunisia that Italy, which had its eye on Tunisia early, has never obtained this land.
France understands the United Kingdom’s apprehension about Italy possibly cutting off the Mediterranean, so as early as a few years ago, it reached a relevant compromise with the British Government.
France will proactively abandon the dispute with the United Kingdom in the Cyprus region in exchange for the United Kingdom maintaining friendly neutrality during France’s colonization of Tunisia.
The so-called friendly neutrality means that the United Kingdom can refrain from making any statements during France’s invasion of Tunisia but also cannot engage in any hostile or rejecting actions.
The reason Prime Minister Jules Ferry dares to plan the war of invading Tunisia is precisely because he is certain that the United Kingdom will not intervene in France’s actions.
As long as the United Kingdom does not intervene in France’s actions, France’s invasion of Tunisia will absolutely not fail. As for France’s neighbor and mortal enemy Germany, it is also absolutely impossible to stop France’s colonial expansion at this time.
The actual reason is also very simple: Germany at this time also does not want to face a war.
In fact, as early as the negotiations with the French Government after the end of the Franco-Prussian War, significant divisions appeared within the German Government.
The original plan of the Prussian Prime Minister Bismarck at that time was to demand 1 billion francs in indemnity from the French Government, thereby establishing Prussia’s advantage in the dispute with France in one fell swoop.
But unexpectedly, the Junker nobility at that time clearly had greater ambitions, and it was the Junker nobility’s lion’s mouth that ultimately turned the French Government’s indemnity from 1 billion to 5 billion.
Although the German Government obtained more funds, the hatred between France and Germany also became more intense. This is also the reason Bismarck fully built the system to isolate France; once the French find an opportunity, France is very likely to launch a war of retaliation.
For Germany at this time, if there is anything that can attract the attention of the French Government, that would naturally be the best.
As a neighboring country, Germany is very aware of France’s public opinion. If the French Government is not allowed to use a refreshing colonial war to release the suppressed emotions domestically, sooner or later an extreme French ruler will come to power, followed by a war with Germany.
This also means that before launching this war, France has actually obtained support from the United Kingdom and Germany.
A few days later, Prime Minister Jules Ferry summoned the Minister of War again and inquired about the military’s preparations for this war.
Considering that Italy is very likely to forcibly intervene in the war, the French Army department’s preparations for this war are still quite sufficient.
The French Army will deploy 50,000 troops in the war of invading Tunisia, with 30,000 committed to combat against Tunisia and 20,000 as reserves to prevent sudden attacks by Italian troops.
In addition to the Army deploying 50,000 men, Prime Minister Jules Ferry also plans to mobilize the French Navy during the invasion of Tunisia to be ready at any time to guard against possible intrusions by the Italian Navy.
Although the Italians probably do not have the courage to launch a war against France, the necessary defenses are still very important.
If they are really caught off guard and successfully sneak-attacked by the Italians, that would be a big mess. Although the Italians’ army combat effectiveness is not strong, Italy’s navy still has a certain scale.
If the French Navy loses part of its capital ships due to a sneak attack, whether it can win naval battles against Italy afterward really would be a question.
Prime Minister Jules Ferry is overall quite satisfied with the Army’s proposed attack plan. Deploying 50,000 troops is not too big an investment for France, and if they can obtain the entire Tunisia with relatively small expenditure, it would be a great merit for both the French Government and the military.
Regardless of Tunisia’s future, for the current Prime Minister Jules Ferry, this is his solid political achievement and also his trump card to protect himself from impeachment.
After confirming that the Army department has completed preparations, Prime Minister Jules Ferry then summoned Foreign Minister Gambetta and required the diplomatic department to find a suitable reason for France to declare war.
Although it is a war against an indigenous nation, for Europe that already values face, a relatively suitable reason for declaring war is still very important.
This not only proves the legitimacy of launching the war but also reduces the reasons for other great powers to intervene in this war.
For example, Italy, if it wants to intervene in the war between France and Tunisia, it also must find a suitable reason; otherwise, it would already be at a disadvantage in terms of war legitimacy.
Foreign Minister Gambetta did not hastily agree to Prime Minister Jules Ferry’s order but raised a new question to Prime Minister Jules Ferry: whether Spain, which shares the same roots with the Italian Royal Family, would help Italy intervene in the war between France and Tunisia.
Spain and Italy’s kings are of the same roots, which also means the two countries have quite close relations. Even though the bond of closeness, Vittorio Emanuele II, has been dead for three years, it does not affect the close cooperation between Spain and Italy.
If it is only Italy’s opposition, the French side has no worry at all. But if Spain also joins the ranks opposing the war, the threat to France would be much greater.
First, Spain’s international influence is still higher than Italy’s. Although the comprehensive national strength of the two countries is not much different, Spain, as the world’s third largest colonial empire, has always maintained a good status in Europe.
Historically, Spain went through a chaotic period from the Bourbon Dynasty to the Republic and back to the Bourbon Dynasty, plus losing the last two large colonies of Cuba and the Philippines, and finally fell completely from the throne of great powers, never again being that first-class European country.
But Spain now is different; although the Cuban Colony is gone, Spain obtained larger Congo plus several pieces of land in West Africa.
The colonial scale of the Philippines also expanded, and Spain’s overall colonial scale has more than doubled several times.
In addition, Spain has already built several ironclad ships, making the navy more powerful, with more and more colonies, and international influence naturally rising accordingly.
If Spain and Italy unite, it would indeed be trouble for France. More importantly, Spain also concerns whether France can break Germany’s isolation plan.
If for the sake of one Tunisia they push both Spain and Italy entirely to Germany’s side, then what France would face next might be a joint blockade by Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Russia, Italy, and Spain.
Facing a blockade by five great powers, even the British Empire would suffer serious impacts. For France at this time, this might be the worst outcome.
This is also Foreign Minister Gambetta’s worry; if Spain really is willing to stand on Italy’s side, this war is very likely to push France into the abyss.
“This is also what I am worried about.” Prime Minister Jules Ferry did not conceal his concern about Spain’s attitude, but he also has sufficient confidence in his carefully prepared plan: “
But don’t forget, France is a first-class power, while Spain and Italy are merely second-class great powers. As long as we can achieve rapid occupation of Tunisia and establish the Tunisian colony before Italy and Spain react, there is no need to worry about these problems that may not even happen.”
Prime Minister Jules Ferry’s action plan is four words: quick battle and quick decision.
Anyway, Tunisia’s population is only a few hundred thousand, and with France deploying 30,000 troops, there is great hope to occupy several important cities in Tunisia within a few days.
As long as they control the situation in Tunisia, even Spain and Italy would not be able to say anything about France’s war.
Because at that time, to change the war situation, they would have to prepare for a full-scale war with France.
Although France’s development is somewhat slower compared to the United Kingdom and Germany, this still cannot prevent France from being one of the most powerful countries in this world.
Current France has a population exceeding 38 million, while the combined total population of Spain and Italy is only about 11 million more than France.
Is France afraid of Spain and Italy? Absolutely not. France is only afraid of Spain and Italy leaning toward Germany; in the end, it is still apprehensive of Germany, this most powerful enemy.
French Foreign Minister Gambetta nodded. In the absence of any better methods, quick battle and quick decision is indeed the best way to deal with it.
As long as France controls the situation in Tunisia, how the war develops will be up to the French.
Then, Gambetta nodded and said solemnly to Prime Minister Jules Ferry: “I will prepare a reasonable reason for the military to declare war. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs awaits your next order at any time.”
In this era, finding a reason to declare war is still very simple; it all depends on whether European countries want to launch war against indigenous people.
Since the French Government has decided to launch an invasion of Tunisia, the diplomatic department’s actions will naturally be quite swift.
Just the next day, the French diplomatic department found a suitable reason for declaring war.
Although Tunisia is an entire region, different indigenous tribes and ethnic groups exist in this region.
Different tribes of the same ethnic group will have conflicts, let alone different tribes of different ethnic groups; those conflicts would only be more intense.
Africa’s indigenous people live by hunting, which also means that neighboring tribes often have great conflicts over the ownership of prey and land.
Unlike before, this time the two conflicting tribes in Tunisia are located in the border area near Algeria, and two European whites happened to be affected by the two conflicting tribes and ultimately died miserably.
Two Frenchmen were massacred by indigenous people; this is the best reason for the French Government to declare war. If a government cannot even protect its own nationals, how can the public believe that the government can protect the country’s land and all the public?
Faced with this excellent reason for declaring war, the French Government did not hesitate at all. The diplomatic department immediately condemned the conflicting tribes in the Tunisia region and demanded that Tunisia immediately hand over the culprits who killed the two Frenchmen, to be executed within a 24-hour deadline.
If Tunisia does not fully hand over the culprits who killed the Frenchmen within 24 hours, France will deploy troops to personally avenge its own nationals.
