Chapter 106: Eastern Front Strategy
Two flowers bloom, each branch tells its own story.
How many benefits the Britannians exactly promised and how they pulled in the small countries of Southeastern Europe remains unknown even within Germania today.
As of mid-April, the Germanians only knew a rough surface result: the Italians declared war on Ollie, but in the first few days after the declaration, there were no substantial actions. It was also heard that Italians went to receive control of Malta, so Britannia and Italy must have quarreled over it—
This information was not hard to obtain, because the Italians loudly proclaimed it on their own newspapers, saying how many benefits there were to declaring war on Austria, and that the kingdom had already obtained Malta and so on.
As the commander of the southernmost relief force on the Eastern Front and the commander of the German 6th Army Group, Marshal Rupprecht saw this newspaper news on April 17.
At that time, Lelouch had just been recalled from Berlin to Munich to follow the troops eastward to Budapest.
Due to the marshal’s high appreciation of him, Lelouch was naturally called to the marshal’s side as soon as he arrived in Munich to serve as a staff officer. His daily meals and living conditions were also attended to by the royal attendants by the marshal’s side.
That day, the marshal saw this newspaper while eating breakfast and casually asked Lelouch, who was eating with him:
“What do you think of this? Why haven’t the Italians formally attacked yet, but are first loudly proclaiming on the newspapers that they received their ally’s Malta? If I were Belfort, seeing this operation by the Italians, I would definitely want to slap them twice—
Doesn’t this make the Britannians look like they are ceding territory and selling out their country? Nominally pulling in an ally, but in reality, this ally hasn’t done anything yet and has first carved away their own territory. Do you think, at this moment, the Britannians are quarreling privately with the Italians?”
Lelouch didn’t need to think and put down his knife and fork, casually answering this simple question: “This is easy to understand. It must be because Italian public opinion is disloyal and morale is low; everyone up and down actually has no intention of participating in the war at all. So, the kingdom’s top leaders need to first show the people some sweets.
Normally, for the sake of their ally’s face, a normal country’s diplomatic operation would be to secretly receive Malta and quietly make a fortune. But the Italians can’t do that; they must act smug after getting the bargain, repeatedly emphasizing to the people that they got the advantage, to barely stir up the people’s will to participate in the war.
From this, it is clear that this country is really not worth worrying about. If its people and soldiers think this way, they are destined to only fight with the wind at their backs; once the situation turns against them, they will collapse faster than anyone.”
The duke carefully chewed and swallowed a mouthful of cheese mashed potatoes, then took a sip of milk to clear his throat, silently nodding: “Indeed, that’s the reasoning. So what do you think is the direct impact of Italy’s declaration of war on the Eastern Front situation? How should we fight next?
Should we continue with the original plan, first go to Budapest to assist Austria in holding firm? Or change the plan to directly advance and block along the Carpathian Mountains defense line to hold off the Lusha Army, or even relieve the Przemysl Fortress that has been besieged for half a year?”
（Note: The “Przemysl” Fortress was originally called the “Perevysl” Fortress in 1915, which is what I wrote earlier as “Perevysl”. But some readers feedback that this place name can’t be found on Google Maps, so from now on, I’ll change it all to “Przemysl”.
“Perevysl” is the transliteration of the Russian place name, but after World War I, this area became part of Poland, so the current online marking “Przemysl” is the Polish transliteration. For subsequent place names that were Russian at the time but Polish now, I’ll use the Polish versions for readers checking Google Maps.）
The duke’s question might sound confusing to those unfamiliar with battlefield details. But to those familiar with the current Eastern Front geographical situation, it is easy to understand.
Before the World War broke out, in the southern sector of the Eastern Front battlefield, the large area of land north of the Carpathians between Lviv and Krakow all belonged to Austria.（Krakow now belongs to Poland, Lviv now belongs to Ukraine）
But within three months after the war started, that is, throughout the autumn of 1914, because the Austrian Army’s combat effectiveness was too poor, the land north of the Carpathians was entirely seized by the Lusha Army, and big cities like Lviv changed hands.
At the westernmost point, the Lusha Army advanced all the way to Krakow, where it was stopped by the Austrian Army reinforced by Germanians, and both sides fought the Krakow Campaign in October~November 1914, with the Lusha Army defeated.
After entering December, the Lusha Army gave up continuing westward and focused on heading south over the mountains. They tried to cross the Dukla Pass east of the Przemysl Fortress, cross the Carpathians, and ultimately enter the Hungarian Basin to seize Budapest.
From then on, in the entire area north of the Carpathians and east of Krakow, the only stronghold Austria held was the Przemysl Fortress, which had 170,000 defenders pre-war and still had 130,000 left after fighting for half a year.
This fortress was stuck on the railway between Lviv and Krakow, preventing the Lusha Army from obtaining supplies by train whether continuing eastward or southward. So even though the Lusha Army had sent troops over the mountains before, they never dared to commit too many, fearing shortages of ammunition and grain for the troops, and thus never achieved any substantial results.
（Note: “Dukla Pass” can’t be found on Google/Apple Maps; it’s on the Carpathian ridge north of “Svidnik”, as shown in the picture below. Elevation 506 meters, now on the Poland-Slovakia border.）
Originally in history, the Przemysl Fortress actually only held out until March 22, 1915, when it fell. The 130,000 Austrian troops inside, after holding for nearly 6 months, finally surrendered to the besieging Lusha Army due to too many wounded and sick, and an outbreak of plague, unable to hold on.
Of course, Lelouch in his previous life, no matter how much of a military enthusiast, couldn’t remember these details so clearly. Moreover, none of this has happened yet now; the 130,000 Austrian troops in the fortress are still holding on, having held for more than 20 extra days compared to the same period in history.
No one knows how this butterfly effect exactly occurred or what the principle is.
Perhaps it is related to the fact that the alliance side had previously developed sulfonamide, and the Germania top brass heard that their ally’s fortress had too many wounded, sick, and low morale from prolonged combat, so they airdropped a batch of sulfonamide by airship.
Because in history, the Austrian Army holding this large fortress hadn’t reached the point of running out of grain, and ammunition wasn’t exhausted either; the main issue was too many wounded and sick soldiers from prolonged combat that they couldn’t sustain.
Sulfonamide is a high-value-density supply that takes up very little weight and volume, making it most suitable for air transport. If it were ammunition or grain shortages, relying on airdrops definitely wouldn’t hold up. But one box of medicine could save hundreds of lives. After Lelouch previously invented airborne troops tactics, the Germania Airship Force tied parachutes to medicine boxes, flew over the fortress, and dropped them; the difficulty wasn’t great.
Medicine boxes aren’t afraid of being damaged by the drop either; just wrap a few extra layers of sponge padding outside.
With sulfonamide, the fortress garrison could at least save one-third of the infected wounded soldiers, greatly boosting morale. Holding out 20 extra days without falling is not surprising. Lelouch just didn’t know the principle behind it.
……
In this situation, the duke asking Lelouch for advice was to know how the Germania Army should respond when the Przemysl Fortress was in such dire straits,
whether to advance and directly assault north of the mountains to relieve the fortress.
And Lelouch’s answer, of course, had to be very cautious.
Although he couldn’t remember the exact turning point timeline of the Carpathian campaign, he had just played several World War I scenarios before transmigrating, so he was quite familiar with the main historical events.
He knew that in the end of the Carpathian campaign, because the Przemysl Fortress was breached by the Lusha Army, the entire Lusha Army became arrogant, thinking they were finally invincible.
The original small number of Lusha 3rd Army Group troops crossing south over the mountains changed to the entire army group crossing south to assault Budapest. Most of the 16 divisions besieging the fortress were also pulled out to follow the 3rd Army Group south.
But because the Germania side heard that the Lusha Army had badly defeated Austria and hurriedly assembled relief forces to aid Austria（In history, it was Mackensen’s 11th Army Group that was urgently transferred）, then the German Army launched a counterattack on Przemysl from the Krakow direction along the railway via Gorlice, recapturing the fortress, known historically as the “Gorlice Breakthrough Battle”.
Then, the Lusha 3rd Army Group that had already crossed south over the Carpathians, along with some auxiliary troops, ultimately had their retreat cut off by the German Army and were annihilated south of the mountains. The Lusha Army’s half-year accumulated gains against Austria vanished overnight, and they even lost extra in the process.
The current situation is exactly like this. Even if Lelouch doesn’t know the specific war history, based on his own judgment to devise a plan, he would still think not to immediately rescue the Przemysl Fortress.
Because as long as the fortress doesn’t fall, the Lusha Army won’t get arrogant and won’t easily let army group-scale large forces directly cross south over the mountains.
As long as the Lusha Army’s main force doesn’t cross south over the mountains, they won’t leave a huge gap north of the mountains for the Germania troops coming from the Krakow direction on the eastern side north of the mountains to cut off their rear and annihilate them.
To lure the enemy over the mountains and into the encirclement by advancing rashly, this nail on the enemy’s rear road seems to have to be sacrificed.
Moreover, in the past half year, Austria’s own army wasn’t without attempts to rescue the Przemysl Fortress; the Austrian commander-in-chief had already organized at least 5 rescue operations. But because the situation at the time was Austrians attacking and Lushans defending, the Lusha Army could rely on their well-established siege fortifications, forcing the Austrian Army to attack their defense line, then using massive heavy cannons to inflict huge casualties on the Austrian Army.
Everyone knows that in World War I, the attacker suffers. The Lusha Army besieged without attacking, besieging the point and striking the reinforcements; the Austrian Army going to rescue would definitely be at a huge tactical disadvantage.
In half a year of attritional warfare, the Austrian Army suffered over 400,000 casualties, the Lusha Army nearly 200,000. The 130,000 Austrian troops in the fortress still weren’t rescued, and the Austrian Army lost more than three times that number to save these 130,000.
After comprehensively considering so much information, Lelouch’s final strategic suggestion was obvious:
“Your Excellency Marshal, I believe that with the terrain of the Carpathian Mountains, the side attacking over the mountains suffers too much. The entire past winter and early spring, the reason the Austrian Army lost over 400,000 was mainly because they wanted to cross north of the mountains to rescue the 130,000 in the fortress.
In the situation where the Austrian Army had to cross the mountains, the Lusha Army could wait at ease for the exhausted enemy. They could leisurely deploy heavy cannons and hold the siege camps, while the mountain-crossing Austrian Army could hardly bring heavy cannons to the front line in time, thus being hit by the Lusha Army with over twice the exchange ratio.
To turn around the entire campaign, we cannot worry about the gain or loss of a single city or place. The best method currently is to abandon the Przemysl Fortress, withdraw in large strides comprehensively south of the Carpathians, let the Lusha Army cross the ridges south, then block them south of the mountains, making the enemy fight this grueling mountain-crossing battle.
Moreover, as more and more enemies head south, our friendly forces left on the flank in the Krakow direction north of the mountains will have the opportunity to launch a resolute breakthrough surprise attack, then counter-recapture the fortress, turning the enemy already over the mountains into turtles in a jar.”
Marshal Duke Rupprecht stroked his beard and pondered repeatedly for a long time, still somewhat reluctant: “I understand all the reasoning you said, but to truly make this decision is not easy to harden the heart. You say not to worry about the gain or loss of a single city or place, that’s right. But if we abandon now, it’s not just the city and land, but also the 130,000 elites in the city!
Austria doesn’t have many elite soldiers; these 130,000 who can fight to the death for half a year unyieldingly in heavy encirclement are rare high-morale troops in Austria. Heard they are mainly Germanic tribe soldiers, plus some Magyar tribe（Hungarians） and Bohemian tribe（Czechs） soldiers, in short, soldiers of Austria’s three most cohesive main ethnic groups.
In comparison, many of the troops previously sent to rescue and lost were low combat effectiveness, from peripheral not-so-united ethnic groups, thus collapsing at the first touch. To make Austria abandon 130,000 core elites of their own ethnicity is not easy.”
Austria’s population and army scale are still very large, but combat power is low, mainly due to overly complex internal ethnic issues. The vast majority of ethnic groups have no loyalty to the empire whatsoever. It even happens that “Germanic tribe officers leading other ethnic soldiers in battle are shot in the back by the soldiers, killing the officers and then surrendering to the enemy.”
So for Austria, 130,000 Germanic tribe + Magyar tribe + Bohemian tribe soldiers are indeed more valuable than 400,000 miscellaneous ethnic soldiers.
Facing the duke’s concerns, Lelouch also had to think of some remedial measures.
After thinking it over, he finally offered a plan to the duke in a discussing tone:
“If it’s just worrying about the loss of these 130,000, we can think of a way to plan: after the Lusha Army succeeds, becomes complacent, and heads south from the Dukla Pass, can we quickly strike from the Krakow direction to cut off the enemy’s rear again?
The Lusha Army has been fighting fiercely in this area for half a year, with huge logistics pressure. Even after capturing the fortress, they won’t have the transport capacity right away to move so many prisoners of war to the rear.
Moreover, they will definitely need a lot of labor to repair the road conditions from the fortress to the Dukla Pass; many treacherous sections can’t even be traversed by mule or horse carts and will require human porterage.
Therefore, right after the fortress falls, I don’t think we need to worry too much about the ‘prisoners being transported to the Lusha rear’; they will mostly be left in the war zone to do hard labor for a while.
Especially since Austrians say the fortress isn’t short of grain, even after falling, the Lusha Army won’t withdraw prisoners to reduce consumption due to lack of grain.
So as long as our counterattack is fast, it is possible to rescue these 130,000 prisoners!”
Truth becomes clearer with debate. After repeated brainstorming and being “interrogated” by the marshal, Lelouch had roughly sorted out a plan better than the same period in history.
In Earth’s history, this campaign ultimately was also “defeat first, victory later,” but the counterattack came too slowly: fortress fell on March 22, Mackensen only achieved breakthrough on May 3.
In between, leaving the Lusha Army a 42-day time gap, a full 6 weeks, so most of those 130,000 prisoners were transported to Lusha rear prisoner of war camps, doing 3 years of hard labor.
Among these 130,000, about one-third were Bohemians, who later became the famous “Czech Legion,” remade by the Lusha Empire from Bohemian prisoners of war.
But in this plane now, Lelouch can completely accelerate this process! They are not “hurriedly coming from the homeland to reinforce Austria after hearing Austria collapsed”; they had prepared long ago, so why would they need 42 days to counterattack?
What if counterattacking 14 days after the fortress falls? Those 130,000 definitely haven’t been transported away yet.
Any faster wouldn’t be good either; if counterattacking in 7 days, the Lusha Army might not have become complacent yet. If the Lusha 3rd Army Group hasn’t headed south over the mountains, the counterattack resistance will greatly increase, and even if successful, they won’t bag the dumplings, with much smaller results.
Must wait for the Lusha 3rd Army Group to head south before the counterattack can begin.
This requires doing a good job of secrecy and silence— in history, Mackensen bringing the German 11th Army Group to Krakow was done very secretly; until the strike, the Lushans didn’t know Mackensen had come, so they dared to let the Lusha 3rd Army cross south over the mountains.
Otherwise, if even half a trace leaked, the Lusha Army commander knowing a fierce general next door was waiting to kick the door in, he wouldn’t dare cross the mountains even with ten times the guts.
……
“So, my opinion is this: we cannot worry about the gain or loss of a single city or place; the fortress should be abandoned if it must be.
What we can do is secretly accumulate strength in advance, prepare the counterattack, shorten the time gap from losing the fortress to counterattacking, and minimize the absolute losses.
At the same time, the key to successful counterattack preparation is secrecy, not letting the enemy know our army’s dispatch direction in advance.
For secrecy, we can even deceive our Austrian allies! We don’t need to tell them we are ‘seeing death and not saving’; we just tell them: our army wants to save but can’t, troops are fatigued, lacking equipment and ammunition.
Only by deceiving our own people can we deceive the enemy. We can even, before the formal counterattack, have Western Front friendly forces launch some new offensives, and during the attacks, fly the flag of our 6th Army Group to confuse the enemy, making them think we are still on the Western Front—feigning weakness when strong, strength when weak…”
Duke Rupprecht’s eyes grew wider the more he listened, though he very much wanted to retort, he ultimately held back.
He was back, everything was back… After two months of rest, the duke originally thought Lelouch had worried too much about armaments and making money, becoming pragmatic.
Unexpectedly, as soon as he refocused his mind on the battlefield, that insidious strategic sense that chilled enemies to the bone was back again.
