Chapter 126: Without Lelouch, Grand Duke Nicholas’s Deployment Wasn’t Actually Wrong
Facing the Tsar’s Nephew’s rebuke, Grand Duke Nikolai Yevgenyevich showed no intention of backing down.
For the Lusha Empire, Grand Duke Nikolai Yevgenyevich is a true patriot; he only considers national interests and the survival of the nation.
As long as he believes his strategy is correct, he must speak out, rather than worrying about the Tsar’s Nephew’s views.
History will naturally prove him right.
So, he earnestly stated his reasons for decision making: “Your Majesty, when I say to assemble 3 million troops to hold Poland to the death, it is not based on personal likes or dislikes; this number is not made up casually.
I have carefully analyzed the enemy’s follow-up strategy: advancing from Lithuania to Lviv from north to south, ultimately cutting off the Polish salient along the Bug River at Brest. This is the most likely strategy among them, with at least a 90% chance they will do it!
Therefore, the Empire’s countermeasures must also be focused and targeted. If the troops are spread thinly along the defense line, it will cause the greatest disaster, and in the end, nowhere will hold!”
Nicholas II could no longer listen: “3 million is impossible! At most 2 million, and have you thought about it: assembling 2 million people in Poland, from which direction should we draw troops? What about other places?”
Although Nicholas II was somewhat angry, he still refused very skillfully. He did not flatly reject the other’s advice, but threw the question back: you say to draw troops, so specifically from where? Let the other side be responsible.
If it’s not reliable, then refuse again; in that case, the Tsar could be said to have humbly accepted advice, while it was the advisor who couldn’t come up with a more comprehensive good plan.
And if it’s reliable and really hard to refuse, then listen to it. But if any new flaws are discovered during future execution, the one who offered the plan can be held accountable.
Grand Duke Nikolai Yevgenyevich knew he couldn’t avoid this question and knew what the Tsar’s Nephew was up to, but he could not back down and had to personally shoulder these risks:
“To assemble more than 2 million troops in Poland, the Empire can only draw forces from three directions—either draw the Imperial Guard Army near the Imperial Capital, or draw garrison troops from the Kievan Rus’ Great Plain area, or draw from Transcaucasia. Besides these three fronts, there are no troops left elsewhere.
The Transcaucasia direction doesn’t actually use that many troops in absolute numbers; even drawing 100,000 to 200,000 would be useless. So the focus can only be on drawing the Imperial Guard near the Imperial Capital and garrisons along the Baltic Sea Coast, especially along the Gulf of Finland.
Next is drawing garrison troops from the Kievan Rus’ Great Plain, but the Kievan Rus’ Plain also risks enemy attack, so this direction can only supplement, not be the main source.”
Nicholas II was not as knowledgeable about military affairs as his uncle. After hearing this specific suggestion, he didn’t know how to refute for a moment, so he said he would consider it, then said he was hungry and had court attendants serve the meal, and kept his uncle to dine together.
At a court casual banquet, the monarch and ministers could not sit together; the ministers had to sit far away at a separate table.
After Grand Duke Nikolai Yevgenyevich was sent away, Nicholas II had room to maneuver. While eating, he had a close attendant pass another message to summon his trusted favorite ministers in military affairs, asking them to analyze the pros and cons of drawing reinforcements from near the Imperial Capital or even the Kievan Rus’ Great Plain.
Having just learned a bit, after the luncheon ended, Nicholas II continued the previous topic with his uncle:
“Uncle, the strategy you offered before the meal seems a bit risky, doesn’t it? The possibility of the enemy attacking the Kievan Rus’ Plain should not be much lower than attacking Poland. Drawing local troops isn’t just giving the Kievan Rus’ Great Plain to the enemy for free?
As for the troops near the Imperial Capital, if they are drawn away and the enemy advances from central Lithuania toward Riga, even breaks through Riga to the south bank of the Gulf of Finland, threatening the royal domain, who will be responsible then?”
Grand Duke Nikolai Yevgenyevich was startled and knew the Tsar’s Nephew must have just listened to some unprofessional slander. He hurriedly argued loudly:
“Your Majesty, do not believe these nitpicking views! The Kievan Rus’ Great Plain indeed has no natural defenses; if the enemy advances, our army will indeed easily lose some land. But as long as the enemy dares to push deeper, they will ultimately pay the price! As long as the Empire frees up forces in the future, it can strike south from the north with heavy troops, straight to the Black Sea Coast, and annihilate any number of enemy troops!
The upper reaches of major rivers like the Dnieper River are in the Empire’s hands, so the enemy cannot control the complete water transport network. The Empire’s railway network radiates out from Petersburg and Moscow as cores. Many cities on the Kievan Rus’ Plain look close but have no direct rail connections; they must at least pass through regional hubs like Kyiv or Kharkiv.
So, as long as the Empire holds Kyiv and Kharkiv, even if those small places on the Kievan Rus’ Plain are temporarily lost, the enemy will sooner or later suffer from pushing too deep into our territory with insufficient supplies and reinforcements. Finally, the Empire can easily strike south from Kyiv and Kharkiv to the sea, annihilating the deep enemy forces!
As for the Northern Front’s Baltic Sea Coast, the situation is similar. The enemy’s current problem is that their north and south wings have already pushed quite far into our territory. If they continue to extend these two wings, their logistics and supply difficulties will become more serious. In comparison, attacking Poland is the most cost-effective for them, because Poland is closer to their homeland than other areas—this is the simplest reason.”
Grand Duke Nikolai Yevgenyevich gave a long analysis about logistics difficulties, emphasizing in short how dangerous it is for the enemy to push deep alone, and how poor the Lusha Empire’s land infrastructure is. If the enemy doesn’t push flat but focuses on infiltration, it’s suicide!
Finally, seemingly worried that the Tsar’s Nephew still had concerns, Grand Duke Nikolai Yevgenyevich added one last persuasive reason:
“Moreover, the Empire has naval superiority in the northern Baltic Sea and even the entire Black Sea. Although the Germanians have many warships, in the Black Sea, it is said they only have two main force ships sold to the Ottomans, far inferior to ours.
And it is said that recently, due to our new defeat, the diplomatic departments have pressured the Britannians, and the Britannians will soon launch the Gallipoli Campaign to seize the Ottoman Dardanelles Strait. Then the Britannians’ invincible fleet can enter the Black Sea to support us, and we will have absolute sea control in the Black Sea!
If the Germanians dare to push deep alone, even if they temporarily take some of our land, as long as Kyiv and Kharkiv are not lost, when we counterattack, we can use Kyiv as a launch base, advance south along the railway. At the same time, transport a batch of troops by navy to land at our originally held ports temporarily lost behind enemy lines, backstab the German Army, strike from north and south, and the efficiency of cutting off the deep enemy troops can more than double!
As for the Baltic Sea, although the British Navy cannot enter to reinforce us, the Empire has operated in the Baltic Sea hinterland for many years. Whether in the Bay of Bothnia, the Gulf of Finland, or Riga Bay, the Empire has deployed mines for a long time, forming a detailed mine restriction navigation chart.
As long as the enemy cannot find the navigation chart through the minefields, even if the Germanians have more warships in the Baltic Sea, they cannot enter the waters north of Riga Bay. As long as the German Army dares to push deep, the outcome will be the same as in the Black Sea: the Empire has sufficient strategic depth to let the enemy in a bit, then land behind, cooperate with friendly forces to cut off the enemy retreat, and annihilate the deep enemy!
Therefore, whether the enemy chooses to advance north from Latvia or west into the Kievan Rus’, it is unwise. Those are risky deep pushes that we can calculate against. Unless the enemy commander is an idiot, they will never make such a foolish staff plan.”
Grand Duke Nikolai Yevgenyevich spoke decisively and irrefutably.
Seeing his uncle portray the enemy as idiots, Nicholas II thought it over and finally realized this argument had some merit.
Lusha’s land is too poor; the northern Baltic Sea and the entire Black Sea domain are where the Lusha Navy has sufficient sea control. If the enemy doesn’t go for the central envelopment but insists on extending the wings along the coast, what’s the point?
“In that case, I agree in principle to Uncle’s deployment suggestion, but 3 million is definitely impossible; strive to assemble 2.2 to 2.4 million, that’s the limit. However, I authorize Uncle to think of other ways, such as after arriving in Poland, conscript local people into the army to fight for the Empire against Germania.
With so many troops, it’s impossible to rely on rear supplies for military rations; the Empire can’t bear it. We can first levy grain locally in the Poland area to solve most of it, and after winter sets in, transfer some autumn grain collected from the Kievan Rus’ Great Plain nearby.”
Grand Duke Nikolai Yevgenyevich wanted to strive for better conditions to hold Poland and consume the German Army, but the Tsar gave him no chance to ask for more; this matter had to end here.
After leaving the Summer Palace, the Grand Duke still felt somewhat unwilling.
“Only up to 2.2 million? The rest has to rely on local recruitment… This way, the Empire’s pull on the Poles will definitely be damaged, but so be it; things have come to this, no choice left.
Better to strengthen and reuse those like Roman Dmowski, let them form more Polish legions, and at the same time grab all the liberal arts intellectuals among the Poles who lean toward Piłsudski’s stance into the army as cannon fodder to fight to the death with the Germanians, so they won’t rise up against us later!”
Grand Duke Nikolai Yevgenyevich’s idea might sound confusing to laymen.
But a brief explanation makes it easy to understand: Before the great war broke out, many intellectuals in the Poland area had fled to the Frankish area, mainly Paris, forming various factions, all ultimately aiming to make the Poles rebel for independence.
However, with the outbreak of war, many restless Poles split into two factions.
The faction represented by Piłsudski believed they could use the Germanians to help the Germanians kill the weak Lusha Empire, then build a country first from the part of Poland originally controlled by the Lusha Empire.
While Roman Dmowski was the other faction, directly opposing Piłsudski. They believed they could use the Lushans, help Lusha fight, eliminate Germania, and then first take a few pieces from the Poland territory controlled by Germany and Austria to establish a Polish state.
These two groups even wore each other’s military uniforms and killed each other on the battlefield.
Before World War I, the reason Polish self-consciousness persisted in the Poland area—despite the country having disappeared over 130 years ago, still maintaining their language and customs generation after generation—was largely because both Germany and Lusha cultivated local spokespeople to attract their kin across the border.
Lusha giving Poles autonomy was not because Lushans had good consciences, but because they knew it could annoy Poles in Germania, destabilizing German rule there. Similarly, Germanians had to give Poles some rights to counter Lusha’s influence.
Those familiar with history books would not find this phenomenon strange. It’s like the Kurdish issue that persisted into the 21st century. The Kurdish problem also emerged after World War I and hasn’t been solved in over a hundred years.
Their vitality comes from Kurds being scattered across Turkey, Syria, and the two Iraqs in four countries, so these four must compete over Kurdish treatment, unable to fully suppress, or risk pushing them to the enemy/neighbor.
Since ancient times, when laborers compete, capital benefits; when capital competes, laborers benefit—this is the natural way.
When laborers compete, capital can say “if you don’t do it, others will.”
When capital competes, laborers can say “if you don’t raise wages, other bosses will.”
If Poland back then hadn’t been partitioned by three powers but had its entire territory under one country, it would have been assimilated within three generations, sixty years.
If Kurds back then hadn’t been deliberately split across four countries by the shit-stirring mine-layer master Britannia during border drawing, it would have been solved long ago.
However, although everyone knows this principle, now forced by reality, Grand Duke Nikolai Yevgenyevich couldn’t care less.
He knew that squeezing the Poles like this was drinking poison to quench thirst for the Empire’s future rule.
Even in the worst case, if this forced the awakened Poles onto the battlefield as cannon fodder, killed by Germanians, and the Empire ultimately failed to hold Poland…
That would be doing evil in vain, helping the Germanians clear some obstacles for their future rule over the Poland area.
But he had no choice and had to do it. The Gorlice-Hungary series of campaigns annihilated 770,000 Lusha troops, completely annihilating the entire Southwestern Front.
Originally in Earth’s history, the troops Lushans used to hold the Poland area afterward included a considerable portion from Brusilov’s two reorganized army groups withdrawn to Poland.
But in this life, those two reorganized army groups had shrunk to only 5 divisions…
With so many fewer people, yet still needing to hold, they had to conscript locally from the Poles!
To pull in so many local militias on such a large scale without letting the Poles think too much or resist, they had to first conscript Poland’s liberal arts intellectuals, so the Poles would have no brains to think nonsense.
A plan relying on local Polish personnel and grain to strengthen local defenses against possible German attacks gradually clarified in Lusha Army Commander-in-Chief Grand Duke Nikolai Yevgenyevich’s mind.
And it was soon implemented and executed.
Lusha’s war machine accelerated again; Lusha troops in the Poland area quickly increased from less than one million to over 1. something million, and still continuously reinforcing, continuously drawing people from the Baltic Sea Coast and Kievan Rus’ Great Plain.
Local Polish troublemakers and liberal arts intellectuals were also massively conscripted, with Lusha natives assigned behind them to supervise combat; any incitement or trouble, and those eloquent guys were shot.
……
“The campaign is over, but the Lushans seem to have timely adjusted their strategy, continuously drawing troops to reinforce defenses in the Poland area. It seems Marshal Hindenburg’s suggested plan of ‘using the great victories of both north and south wings to advance and pinch, ultimately cutting off the enemy Polish salient near Brest Fortress’ will be difficult to execute.”
A few days later, on July 2, shortly after the end of the Hungary-Romania series of campaigns.
Rupprecht, the 6th Army Group Commander who had just arrived in the Romanian capital Bucharest, summoned his confidant Colonel Lelouch von Ritter Hunt.
He informed him of this enemy intelligence trend and also relayed the next phase campaign suggestion recently received from General Staff Headquarters to Lelouch the staff officer.
The Duke’s idea was simple: he wanted to hear Lelouch’s opinion on Marshal Hindenburg’s plan. And see what countermeasures he had for the current enemy changes.
In the past few days, Lelouch actually hadn’t worried about military affairs. After the campaign ended, he had been inspecting the Ploiești oil fields in Romania to see how production recovery was going and if production scale could be increased short-term.
Historically, pre-World War II peak output at Romania’s Ploiești oil fields reached over 10 million barrels per year, about 200 thousand tons（ crude oil 1 barrel 50 gallons, about 7 barrels per ton）
Unfortunately, now in 1915, the annual output here is only over 2 million barrels, about 300 thousand tons.
That is, compared to Earth’s 25 years later, the current oil field development rate is only one-sixth.
If efforts are made to expand production, not saying directly to 6 times scale, but doubling or more than current within one or two years should still be achievable.
However, it requires considerable basic industrial investment. The production equipment, exploration instruments, pipelines, and oil tanks needed here require massive raw materials and industrial orders; in war era, these are hard to coordinate. Especially, Empire high-level people may not yet appreciate the huge value of massive fuel supply.
So, Lelouch originally planned to use the opportunity of troop rest in early and mid-July to collect the situation here, then return home to coordinate materials and equipment orders. By the way he could also check the latest progress of the three-phase electric arc furnace steel plant he put into production a few months ago, and talk more deep cooperation with Krupp.
But since Your Highness the Duke came and asked about a major military decision, Lelouch didn’t mind spending some energy to properly help his top boss analyze.
After slightly sorting out the current situation the Duke inquired about, he immediately stated his attitude:
“I didn’t expect the Lushans to react so quickly; after disastrous defeat and destruction in Hungary and Lviv, they immediately thought to strengthen forces to hold Poland—but I think this is nothing to fear.
The Lushans worry we will advance north-south to cut off Poland, wasting massive troops there. Then we can suggest General Staff Headquarters change the plan to both wings flying, Northern Front and Southern Front each expanding gains further along the coastlines.
The Northern Front can take the entire Baltic Sea Coast until reaching the Gulf of Finland entrance. The Southern Front can advance along the Black Sea, first take Odessa, then Crimea, then upstream using the Dnieper River system, cooperating with frontal ground attacks to aim for the Kievan Rus’ Great Plain hinterland.”
“What? You actually suggest abandoning Marshal Hindenburg’s Poland campaign plan? Wait, tell me: are you opposing just to oppose, or do you really think your idea is better than Marshal Hindenburg’s?”
The Duke was also greatly surprised and had to ask.
After all, Duke Rupprecht was also very knowledgeable in military common sense; like the enemy Grand Duke Nikolai Yevgenyevich, he could see at a glance the many shortcomings of the “both wings flying, continue deep push” plan.
Pushing too deep, logistics alone is hard to solve.
Especially regarding “Odessa” that Lelouch just mentioned, the Duke even specifically reminded in return:
“Did you not look at the map carefully? Better think clearly: our currently occupied Lviv has no railway directly to Odessa! Must go from Lviv to Kyiv first, then from Kyiv to Odessa!
Lushans’ railway network is very rudimentary; almost every place must transfer at regional hubs to connect. Don’t think Odessa is only over 100 km from Romanian border; that road is really bad.”
Lelouch: “But we can use the navy for supply transport— isn’t Odessa a seaport? No direct rail to Lviv or Chisinau? We don’t even need railways to transport supplies for siege troops!”
The Duke was surprised again: “Rely on navy? The Empire has no naval presence in the Black Sea at all, fully relying on Romanians, Bulgarians, and Ottomans for merchant shipping. As for navy, only ally Ottomans have some, still relying on 2 battlecruisers and a bunch of old ships the Empire sold pre-war— do these dare say they can steadily beat Lusha’s Black Sea Fleet?
Moreover, even if the Empire could control the Ottoman Navy and luckily win one or two small battles to change Black Sea naval balance, what if Britannians break through into the Black Sea with their Eastern Mediterranean naval forces at all costs?”
Lelouch: “The Britannians can’t get through the Dardanelles Strait at all.”
Duke: “If they launch ground attack from Greece to control the strait shortly and let the fleet through…”
Lelouch: “Your Highness, please trust my judgment; the Britannians can’t even sneak attack or briefly control the strait.”
The Duke didn’t refute immediately but thought a bit, then changed topic: “Fine, Black Sea direction, we set aside dispute for now; then Baltic Sea direction? Britannians’ fleet can’t pass Danish straits into Baltic Sea, that’s true.
If Imperial Navy main force concentrates mostly in Baltic Sea, it can indeed crush Lusha’s Baltic Fleet—but the problem is, waters north of Riga Bay and Gotland are full of Lusha mines; only Lushans have charts to pass minefields.
Lushans know their navy can’t match Empire’s, so early on they sealed northern Riga Bay Baltic Sea with mines. In May, navy’s light cruiser recon fleet tried to break into north of Riga Bay but failed, losing some light small ships.”
Lelouch: “Then develop a new mine-sweeping tool—I’ve specifically looked into this; Lushans’ mines blocking Riga Bay, Gulf of Finland, and Bay of Bothnia are mainly moored mines.
That is, the type with bottom connected by steel cable to sunken anchor weight, then adjust cable length so buoyancy holds the mine body suspended at a certain depth in water, usually slightly shallower than warship draft, explodes on collision.
As for more complex fuzes, with Lushans’ technical strength they seem unable to make them yet; they can only make contact-trigger mines. And I think there’s a way to crack this kind—if unable to crack, we can still ‘single wing fly’ in Black Sea direction; if crackable, then Baltic Sea side can also ‘both wings fly’. Let Lushans keep 2 million in Poland or 3 million, fine by us, just eating dry rice there doing nothing.”
——
PS: That’s it for today.
What I wrote now might be a bit wordy.
Don’t wait for tomorrow’s 8 AM update; come see at noon tomorrow. Completely no drafts left, have to write fresh tomorrow morning after getting up.
