Chapter 214: No Poisoner Could Be More Ruthless Than This
Lelouch hadn’t expected that this year’s operations in the Kievan Rus’ region would yield such massive grain stockpiles.
The 7.5 million tons in warehouses around Kyiv, plus the 2.2 million tons captured in Kharkiv warehouses, add up to 9.7 million tons—what kind of concept is that? Using relatively generous supply standards, with per capita annual grain consumption at 400 kilograms, a population of 100 million would consume 40 million tons in a year.
Before the war began, Germania’s home population was just over 80 million; including core territories captured after the war, mostly populated by their own people, it comes to about 100 million.
As for the alien races in the newly occupied areas, the Empire doesn’t need to feed them from its reserves—no need to do more than plunder them and let them fend for themselves.
So these 9.7 million tons of grain are enough to feed all Germania nationals and Germanic Tribe members for about three months, equivalent to getting through a season of winter or spring famine, with about 100 kilograms per person.
The black soil great plain of Kievan Rus’ truly lives up to its reputation as a granary. And this is still with slight reductions due to this year’s war, plus a small portion already plundered and shipped out by the Tsarist rulers.
If it hadn’t been shipped out and there was no famine, theoretically the Kievan Rus’ Great Plain could export 12 to 14 million tons of grain outward each year.
When Duke Rupprecht saw this grain haul, his first thought was to allocate a large portion immediately and exchange it for other things to boost the army’s combat effectiveness.
This idea was actually quite normal, because in previous victories, captured military rations and supplies—unless directly usable by our side—would always be sold off and used to buy scarcer items. Converted to gold, it could be used to order submachine guns or tanks, either way.
But this time, Lelouch had a different view, because the scale of this grain was too massive.
Lelouch felt that if it were rashly allowed to flow out immediately, it might affect Germania’s wartime economy structure, making the agricultural sector even more neglected.
And on the Earth plane, when the war reached its one-year mark—that is, the winter of 1916—Germania itself also suffered a famine, historically known as the Turnip Winter.
The so-called “turnip,” commonly known in the East as “water radish,” is essentially a white, elongated root vegetable like a radish. Because that winter of 1916 on Earth, Germania was so short on grain that not only was there insufficient wheat, but even potatoes ran out; most poor people could only eat turnips to survive the winter, and there were even considerable numbers of starvation deaths.
A major reason Emperor Wilhelm was later taken down was the popular discontent caused by the Turnip Winter. When people are starving to death, who would still be willing to fight for the Emperor?
Lelouch of course didn’t care what happened to the Emperor in the future, but he knew the people were innocent.
Better to hold it back now than expose this grain and let the Armament Department people cut fertilizer production even more recklessly to ramp up explosives, ignoring the livelihood of the people.
Better to withhold it first, ensure Germania’s 1916 agricultural production follows its original historical inertia, and if it’s still not enough to eat by winter, then gradually release this hidden stockpile for emergency relief.
And by then, perfectly reasonable explanations could be found for the grain’s source—say that the Kievan Rus’ Plain in 1915 suffered massive reductions due to the war, plus harvests plundered by the Tsar. But in 1916, under efficient management by Germania prisoners of war and the Occupied Area Affairs Department throughout the year, production efficiency greatly improved, leading to a bumper autumn harvest.
If that day came, wouldn’t the people within Germania be grateful to the generals and officials managing Eastern occupied areas?
Of course, some of these reasons couldn’t be stated openly right away, especially those prophecies that would expose the transmigrator identity.
Lelouch could only run through it in his mind first, then select the parts he could say and analyze them for Duke Rupprecht.
……
“The situation is like this, so I insist that the vast majority of this grain must be hidden away first. Only if we ourselves control it can we add an extra layer of insurance for saving the Empire.”
After laying out all the analysis, Lelouch concluded with this firm verdict.
Duke Rupprecht, given Lelouch’s accumulated credit from always being right before, was a bit skeptical of this proposal but still willing to bet on it with him.
“Alright, I admit the situation you describe could indeed happen, and it must be guarded against. So we’ll do as you say—hide away the vast majority of the grain from Kievan Rus’. How much specifically to hide and report do you think is appropriate?”
This number couldn’t just be made up; Lelouch still did some calculations and finally gave the Duke a suggestion:
Total of 9.7 million tons: report 2.7 million tons, hide 7 million tons and keep off the books for another year.
This 2.7 million tons reported as captured Lusha warehouse stocks; the rest was either taken by the Tsar or burned in scorched-earth destruction by chaotic troops.
And after reporting this 2.7 million tons, another 1 million tons could be requested for the Germania 6th Army Group, 10th Army Group, and Austro-Hungarian 3rd and 5th Army Groups’ military rations for the next two years.
These 4 army groups total about 1.2 million men; at 400 kilograms of grain per person per year, that’s about 500,000 tons of military rations for one year, 1 million for two.
Additionally, this campaign captured 1 million Lusha prisoners of war, plus 200,000 British and Italian prisoners from the Gallipoli Campaign, totaling another 1.2 million men, who theoretically also need 1 million tons for the next two years.
But considering prisoners don’t need to eat as well as soldiers—even if they’re still doing heavy labor for infrastructure and factory repairs—discount it by 30 percent, say 700,000 tons.
Additionally, for the subsequent Caucasus front and even the Middle East front, provisions for about 200,000 Ottoman Army troops or other friendly forces will be needed; this portion may not need to be calculated for 2 years, as Caucasus fighting will surely end within 1916, and if it spreads to the Middle East, it should end that year too; together, allocate 200,000 tons of military rations.
Total set aside: 1.9 million tons. Reporting 2.7 million tons captured, shipping back 800,000 tons to the homeland as a gesture should satisfy His Majesty the Emperor.
After all, originally the Empire had to provide rations for the Eastern Front armies; now with this, all armies on the Eastern Front’s southern wing bring their own rations—over 1 million men for two years without needing Empire support—what a great deal.
……
After settling the allocation plan for captured grain and industrial reconstruction matters, the Duke had only one last troublesome issue left, needing Lelouch to personally advise on it.
This was a military matter, also within Lelouch’s duties as Chief of Staff, so the Duke asked directly:
“After von Bock reached Kursk and Voronezh a few days ago, he basically couldn’t advance north or east: on one hand, local resistance was too fierce, with civilians destroying railways everywhere; on the other, the cold weather made tank diesel engines unreliable.
According to your previous plan, when cold weather makes northward advances difficult, troops should pull back, using armored cars and tank forces to mainly attack the eastern Sea of Azov coastal region, take Rostov, and push the control zone to the Don River-Seversky Donets River line. Preparing for this year’s subsequent Caucasus campaign.
But these past few days, General Staff Headquarters sent inquiries, hoping we seize the opportunity of the great victory in the Kyiv campaign to cooperate with Marshal Hindenburg in pursuing the enemy, advancing from north and south to encircle a large pocket near Minsk, enveloping the vast area from Warsaw to Minsk.
After all, Hindenburg and Ludendorff have been clamoring for half a year to encircle Warsaw; it was just that the Empire hadn’t given them resources before. Now with both wings victorious, their demand for a central breakthrough to make up the shortfall is reasonable. If it goes well, they might even annihilate another entire Lusha front—the Western Front Army—with enemy losses possibly reaching 1 to 1.5 million again.
Now His Majesty the Emperor is so stimulated by the great victories at Kyiv and Gallipoli that he’s gotten impulsive and can’t be held back; do you think we should support this plan? If we insist on opposing without good reason, it might anger His Majesty. Our previous great merits might be overshadowed, making the world think we’re arrogant with our achievements.”
Lelouch thought it over, still insisting on Southern Front operations eastward, first taking Rostov to prepare and lay groundwork for the Caucasus. But he knew the Duke couldn’t directly refuse the Emperor, so he planned to help find some reasons:
“Your Highness, forgive my bluntness, but attacking Warsaw now would be a strategically rotten move, because we have no urgent reason to take Warsaw right now. Even if we ultimately must take it, considering the economic calculation and political calculation, we should wait another three or four months.”
Duke: “Oh? Why wait?”
Lelouch: “I’ve heard that Eastern Poland is already in dire civilian straits, especially after the Kievan Rus’ region was encircled last November—southern grain couldn’t reach the north, and Lusha’s vast northern urban areas have entered a harsh winter of grain and coal shortages.
The coal mines around Warsaw, though only about 4% of Lusha’s national coal production pre-war, but considering Lusha got 87% from Donbas back then—and now that 87% is gone—Warsaw’s 4% becomes a huge share of the remaining 13%, nearly 30%.
Eastern Poland and Western Belarus are also relatively fertile farming plains, though still with plenty of swamps. But compared to Lusha’s bitterly cold north, they remain an invaluable grain-producing area.
After the Empire controls the Kievan Rus’ region, all of Belgorod, and the main fertile grain areas of Kursk and Voronezh, then controls Rostov—Lusha’s remaining grain-producing spots nationwide total just a few:
The largest is the Volga River-Don River basin centered on Tsaritsyn, then Eastern Poland and Western Belarus, third is the warm North Caucasus region, plus parts of Kazakhstan’s farming reclamation areas, and a few southern Ural reclamation zones.
Besides these five areas, Lusha’s remaining territory looks vast but is all too cold for farming, or still untamed grassland and forest. This year, Lusha’s northern grain deficit is at least 10 million tons—equivalent to the full-year rations for over 20 million people.
In this situation, the Don-Volga basin, North Caucasus, and Kazakhstan people are Lusha’s core ethnic population, while Eastern Poland and Western Belarus are mostly Polish. Do you think, short of starving over 10 million to death, Lushans would prioritize squeezing their own people or the Poles?
Over the past century, Lusha Tsars, to incite Poles to oppose us Germanics more, hypocritically granted Polish under Lusha far greater autonomy than those under Germania. They even let some Lusha Pole fake-marry a Germania citizen to gain Germania nationality, then go within Germania to form cliques and stir trouble.
Now, shouldn’t they pay the price for all that? If we directly take Poland, the Poles will hate the Empire and be hard to rule later—they’ll think their old days of playing both sides were better. But if Lushans use the cruelest means to seize all their surplus grain, ensuring Lusha natives survive—even at the cost of starving a few million Poles—
Then later, with the Empire’s propaganda tools, it would be enough to make Poles hate Lushans to the death; when the Empire takes that land, resistance would be much reduced.
Moreover, as I said before, for the Kievan Rus’ region in the future, we should implement ‘rule along the Dnieper River’—direct rule west of the river, autonomous puppet east. To ensure long-term stability west of the river, we must foster deep hatred of Lushans among Poles, so they have no choice but to stick loyally with the Empire.
But if we attack now, we’ll face several problems: first, before this year’s 1916 summer grain harvest in May, if the Poles haven’t starved yet, we’ll need to provide grain to save them—greatly increasing our grain pressure; if by year’s end it’s not enough, we’ll be starving our own nationals.
If we don’t provide grain to save them, that hatred will fall on us. Since from now until the May summer grain harvest, local grain is only outgoing, not incoming—why wade into this muddy water? The best scenario is letting Lushans squeeze the Poles another three or four months, letting them suffer a bit.
When April-May summer grain is about to be harvested, we charge in—even waiting until after harvest is fine. Lusha’s collection system isn’t that fast; they can’t warehouse or transport winter wheat immediately after May harvest—impossible even by June.”
After hearing this analysis, the Duke also felt a chill run up his spine.
This guy could talk so calmly about millions starving—truly a poisoner of the age.
But obviously the Duke couldn’t use this reason to refuse the Emperor—it was far too unseemly.
“Then… what reason? Any high-sounding one we can use?”
Lelouch thought: “A public reason? Not none. Your Highness can first apply to His Majesty, stating the Caucasus oil fields are also vital to the Empire; to secure them ASAP, hope His Majesty permits the 6th Army Group to stay on the eastward axis, taking Rostov first.
After all, repeated turnarounds waste time—no need for back-and-forth. My Baria Army also supports taking Warsaw, but hopes only the 10th Army Group participates. Meanwhile, to show sincerity, we can send a batch of tanks to Marshal Hindenburg’s 8th Army Group—dozens to a hundred vehicles.
Then both north and south wings have tanks; even if troop numbers are short, breakthrough power should suffice—if they still can’t take it, that’s Hindenburg and Ludendorff’s command failure, not on us.”
Duke: “You think, with two main army groups’ forces, each side with over a hundred tanks, over a hundred armored cars, over 500 armored fighting vehicles army-wide, it’s still possible they temporarily can’t take Warsaw?”
Lelouch: “Actually, Lusha kept their strongest general Brusilov in the Western Front Army all last year; the commanders of the Northwest and Southwestern Fronts aren’t up to much. It was Lushans misjudging we’d pincers the center, so they deployed that way—ending with elites just filling the line and skirmishing us for half a year, no major battles.
This time Hindenburg faces Brusilov; if he underestimates from the start, progress won’t be fast. Also, our diesel tanks have an issue: using unprocessed No. 0 diesel, they might not start in extreme cold.
It’s almost mid-January now; late January to early February is the coldest time of the year, colder than December. If Hindenburg insists on taking Warsaw in Jan/Feb, or at least cutting between Warsaw and Minsk—when tanks are halfway and hit extreme cold, they’ll have to pause.
And after weather warms, we can delay two more months, avoid two months of feeding Poles with our own grain after taking Warsaw, and let survivors hate Lushans more—leaving them no choice.”
