Chapter 219: Black-and-red Polarization—everyone Knows You
“A qualified General Staff Headquarters should, in peacetime, fairly formulate operational plans against all neighboring countries regardless of the closeness of diplomatic relations, so that when political and diplomatic changes occur and the military department needs to respond immediately, they can fight at once and win at once.
This is the correct approach to truly inheriting and developing Clausewitz’s great view that ‘war is the continuation of politics,’ and it is also the best way to advance with the times by inheriting Chief of Staff Helmuth Moltke’s national strategy.
In the new era and situation, the causes of war outbreaks have become diversified and unpredictable. Since Metternich, the era where calm decisions on war and peace could be made through interest exchanges between traditional dynastic nobles has passed in the past 90 years.
In the new era, public opinion and the people may also sweep up the king and emperor, prime minister and grand leader, forcing the authorities to take a hard line externally due to public pressure. This World War is because both sides were forced by the surging hawkish hardline positions in their own countries and could not retreat, ultimately brewing the great war.
And this lesson, we should have realized two thousand years ago—in the 《Peloponnesian War》 era, democratic Athens was multiple times forced in war and peace decision-making, due to its system, to risk a decisive battle with Sparta.
History has long told us that once public opinion is qualified to sweep up foreign decision-making, then in public debates, the hawkish side only needs to stubbornly criticize the other side as cowards during cursing matches in the square, and can force the opponent to lose all face and prestige, finally having to agree to military radicalism.
This was a lesson that Thucydides and Plato had already seen clearly more than two thousand years ago, and it was reenacted in the Napoleon era. It was only the recent 90 years of peace since the Metternich era that made the whole world relax vigilance, thinking that this ancient precept was outdated.
Precisely because in the context of the era of nation-states, war can be swept up and erupted by unpredictable public opinion, its unpredictability of outbreak has greatly increased. The calmness of a group is often determined by the least calm individuals in the crowd.
Because human biological instincts all have a sense of honor and a desire to show off, insulting others as cowards naturally has sweeping power. So you can expect a few people to remain calm due to interest calculations, but you cannot expect that among several million people, there are no impulsive ones; this is the reason why the more rabble, the less calm they are.
Contemporary politics certainly has many aspects that are vastly more advanced than ancient times. But at least on this small point of war and peace decision-making, contemporary politics has regressed to the level of ancient Greece. Long-standing friendly or hostile diplomatic relations between high levels can be changed and swept up by sudden events at the bottom. Therefore, as military staff officers, there is a need to find ways to compensate for this shortcoming of contemporary politics.
Since no diplomatic relationship is absolutely stable, this requires a qualified General Staff Headquarters to formulate a set of operational plans with any neighbor as the hypothetical enemy. The existence of such operational plans itself does not imply any hostility—it may forever lie dusty in the desk drawer of the General Staff Headquarters, or it may one day in the future be taken out just to help a friendly nation put down a rebellion…”
Lelouch’s topic introduction for this Potsdam Military Academy assignment was presented in this form.
The time was just one week after the first class, around January 24.
Spending just one week to complete the topic selection and write a rough introduction of the content to be discussed, framing the scope of argumentation, is already quite good, and it won’t seem overly flashy or hasty.
His opening introduction also received high secret appreciation from the retired temporarily rehired old principal Marshal Goltz.
Marshal Goltz privately admitted that this was the most insightful paper he had seen since 1908—including compared to his own. Even Marshal Goltz himself said that most of his academic achievements in his life were achieved when he was young, before age 65. After being sent back in 1908 to serve as principal, he no longer had such high-level academic innovations.
Of course, in this week, Lelouch did not just do this one thing. His shocking speech in the opening class that day not only greatly shocked the principal but also made him the focus of the entire training class.
All fellow students clearly divided into two factions,
One faction found his views refreshing and supported him fanatically, feeling that he was indeed the outstanding figure among the young generation of officers, the fresh blood destined to save the Empire in the future.
The other faction were supporters of the Schlieffen Plan, and also supporters of Schlieffen line inheritors like Hindenburg and Ludendorff. They felt Lelouch was ignorant of his own limitations and too arrogant.
Some also thought he was purely trying to flatter the old principal Marshal Goltz, knowing that Goltz and Schlieffen had fought for a lifetime, so he spoke ill of Schlieffen in front of Marshal Goltz.
But no matter what, black and red are both red.
After this commotion, no one in the entire Potsdam Military Academy was unaware of Lelouch; no one would ignore him. Whenever anyone mentioned him, it was either great praise or great criticism, all with very clear stances.
Under such circumstances, this week there were also quite a few people coming to debate various military issues with Lelouch every day, forcing him to take positions, hoping to find fault with him.
And those Schlieffen faction and supporters of Hindenburg and Ludendorff naturally wanted him to evaluate Marshal Hindenburg’s ongoing Polish campaign—originally this topic had little relation to the rights and wrongs of the Schlieffen Plan. But helplessly, after those people argued viciously, they liked to attack the person rather than the issue, unable to achieve Lelouch’s level of calmness.
Many conservative officers just felt “soldiers should speak with actual combat military merit, not just argue right and wrong with words.”
Of course, they also knew that Lelouch’s military merit was very solid. Even if he only assisted the 6th Army Group and Marshal Rupprecht as chief of staff to achieve victory, he absolutely deserved promotion to general.
So those people did not dare to question Lelouch’s military merit, but only hoped that Lelouch would admit that Marshal Hindenburg fought just as well as Marshal Rupprecht, that Chief of Staff Ludendorff’s level was no less than his Lelouch, or even superior to him.
But unfortunately, Lelouch certainly would not go along with their words.
In debates on specific military issues, Lelouch unhesitatingly pointed out problems in Hindenburg and Ludendorff’s recent specific campaign planning:
“The Lushans have already been beaten with millions of casualties, of course they will ultimately lose the Polish campaign! But Marshal Hindenburg and Chief of Staff Ludendorff are now eagerly seeking merit and advancing rashly, which is truly a great taboo in military strategy!
The economic value of the Eastern Poland region today is just agriculture; other industries have been mostly destroyed by the ongoing stalemate war. Taking it a few months early or late makes no difference, as long as it is secured before this year’s summer grain harvest, it’s the same.
And the Tsar, for the face of the Lusha Empire, will not voluntarily abandon territory. If we attack a few months later, their million-strong army will be held and consumed for a few more months. The Empire can then act earlier in other Lusha coastal oil production areas and industrial areas, expanding victories more.”
Lelouch’s remarks were already much more restrained than when he spoke with Duke Rupprecht. He even held back from mentioning reasons like “recovering Eastern Poland a few months early would mean feeding local people with our country’s grain earlier,” after all, it was a public academic debate where some decorum was needed.
But even holding back, it still stirred up waves upon waves among the crowd.
A small group of Schlieffen, Hindenburg, and Ludendorff supporters immediately criticized him as jealous of the able and hogging merit while shifting blame:
“Brigadier General Lelouch! This is you being jealous of the able, only wanting to gain military merit yourself and unable to see others do well! Who doesn’t know the Southern Front battlefield is controlled by your 6th Army Group! You say to stick the Polish theater longer to hold and consume the enemy main force, to let the Empire first occupy the oil fields and other industrial areas,
Isn’t that just wanting to create opportunities for your 6th Army Group to attack the eastern Black Sea coast and Caucasus region! All the benefits go to you despicable Southerners, while the tough jobs are left to us Northerners, truly shameless!”
Once these words were spoken, they naturally immediately received a warning from the academy’s on-site monitors, stating that it would be reported for punishment.
This was openly bringing the internal Germania Army faction struggles to light, using the conflicts between the conservative Junker Officer Corps and other emerging forces, which was extremely detrimental to unity.
However, warning is warning; Lelouch was not the type to rely on academy warnings for support. He believed that even if personally attacked, he could still win the debate with reason, so he continued to argue forcefully:
“Jealous of the able? Does my Lelouch need to be jealous of the able? Having the Polish Theater stick to the enemy main force as much as possible, consuming as many enemy inputs as possible, to relieve pressure on the Caucasus direction—this is already the best way I think the Polish Theater can contribute to the Empire in these two months.
Even if they fight all out, do they have the ability to achieve a decisive victory over the million enemy forces in Eastern Poland within these two months? They don’t! If they can win at a relatively low cost, then I would accept it. The key is that their eager merit-seeking and rash advance will only unnecessarily increase the casualties of Empire warriors, which is irresponsible to soldiers’ lives!
Correct, the Empire has recently won several major campaigns against the Lushans in a row, but those were all from April last year to December last year! The whole process lasted just over eight months, not even a full year!
Your lighthearted enemy underestimation, thinking the Lushans are completely no longer a threat, is like a roast goose that hasn’t lived a full week. Thinking that having the feeder deliver feed every morning is an eternal unchanging truth, unaware that on Christmas Eve night, the ‘feeder delivering feed’ truth will turn into the slaughter knife and the scalding hot water for defeathering!
Daring to claim to have seen the truth from a pattern not even a year old? Have you forgotten Napoleon’s lesson from 104 years ago? Have you forgotten the power of ‘General Winter’ in Lusha northern regions! Although Eastern Poland is not very north, the severe cold will still cause logistics difficulties; attackers in this season must bear huge disadvantages!
In comparison, the southern regions are warm, especially along the Black Sea, Caspian Sea coasts, and the downstream Don River and Volga River. Fighting on those Lusha lands has no threat from General Winter; every one of my analyses is based on what is most beneficial to the nation and army, not out of selfish motives!
You villains judging gentlemen with petty hearts, I’m too lazy to waste words with you. Want to see results? Just wait and see. Before winter ends, if the Polish campaign cannot end, who has grasped the truth will be self-evident!”
With the debate reaching this point, Lelouch even threw out divine prophecy to back it up. Those opposing conservative and Schlieffen faction naturally had nothing to say.
After all, they had just been warned and punished by academy monitors for wrong words, attacking the person not the issue, detrimental to unity. Now with Lelouch’s analysis so ironclad and direct, there was no need to continue bickering before results came out.
Those unconvinced guys temporarily swallowed their anger, planning to wait for Marshal Hindenburg and Chief of Staff Ludendorff’s army groups to win a great victory in Poland and end the campaign by winter’s end, then use facts to slap Lelouch’s face.
Entering the third week at Potsdam Academy, Lelouch finally had some peace; he could bury himself in researching and arguing the selected topic, discuss with classmates, and slowly complete his paper.
He also borrowed a pile of books and archives from the Potsdam Academy library, filling an entire trunk of his BMW sedan.
Preparing to run around everywhere afterward, handling other industry and armament matters while finding time to read, write the paper.
The book list and required archive list were prepared for him by old principal Marshal Goltz, suggesting he borrow these to support his paper.
Moreover, Marshal Goltz took two or three days to focus on teaching him how to efficiently read these books and archives, how to grasp the big picture and extract the essence for understanding. Although just three days of guidance, it benefited Lelouch immensely.
Many of his originally far-sighted but vague half-baked ideas in his mind became more interconnected and enabling of analogies after Marshal Goltz sorted them out.
Lelouch inwardly sighed: Marshal Goltz is indeed a top theorist who was Potsdam old principal for 6 years; after a lifetime of study, he still has real goods in his belly.
This was truly treating him as a closed-door disciple, imparting the most confidential essentials.
This was not something Lelouch deliberately pursued; his original intent was just to use this opportunity to establish his persona, emphasizing the position he would represent in the future, to fight against those “bottom-up, military overriding politics” conservatives in the General Staff Headquarters.
In the future, if the people begin to reflect on the bottom-up conservative issues in the army, they will see him as the benchmark.
And Marshal Goltz’s appreciation was just an unexpected gain in Lelouch’s layout process at his original pace.
……
As time reached the end of January, Lelouch’s training at Potsdam Military Academy was nearly three weeks.
He no longer needed Marshal Goltz’s daily guidance and prepared to ask the marshal for leave to go out and handle some matters, guaranteeing to carry the archives and books with him, not delaying the paper writing.
Marshal Goltz personally approved his temporary leave from school.
Lelouch then packed his luggage and called Mister Gustav at Krupp.
He originally thought Gustav should be at the steel mill and cannon factory in Essen, but Krupp staff replied that the boss was not there, having gone to Wilhelmshaven on a business trip during this period.
Because the Empire’s first “Baria-class” battleship “Baria” had formally completed all outfitting work and most sea trials, about to undergo the final sea trial acceptance before commissioning.
And the “Baria-class” was installed with the new 48-caliber three-phase electric arc furnace steel main guns from Krupp Company’s temporary design change, so the cannon manufacturer needed to pay attention, having the boss personally attend the Navy’s acceptance ceremony.
Lelouch thought about it; anyway, discussing the cooperation project to open a large steel mill in Kievan Rus’ with Gustav didn’t need to be cooped up in an office. He might as well go to Wilhelmshaven himself.
On the other hand, just after Lelouch left Potsdam, his latest paper introduction had already spread.
Not only from Marshal Goltz’s hands to Chief of Staff Falkenhayn, but soon from Falkenhayn to Emperor Wilhelm.
After reading it, Emperor Wilhelm was greatly moved in his heart.
After all, he was a firsthand witness to the July 1914 crisis. Back then, he personally asked the General Staff Headquarters and Moltke the Younger: Does the Empire really have no operational plan that avoids war with the Franks and only fights the Lushans?
Finally, Moltke the Younger personally told him: There simply is no such plan in the world. The General Staff Headquarters never made an operational plan with only the Lushans as the hypothetical enemy. And this shouldn’t be blamed on the General Staff Headquarters, because other countries’ staff departments can’t do it either.
At the time, Emperor Wilhelm endured it, thinking perhaps all staff headquarters in the world couldn’t be so comprehensive, and Germania’s General Staff Headquarters should already be the best on the planet. If the world’s number one can’t do it, perhaps the one making demands was too much.
But now seeing Lelouch’s paper topic introduction, Emperor Wilhelm suddenly woke up: What? It turns out someone on this planet can do this?
It turns out someone long ago believed that operational plans should be made indifferently against all neighbors, regardless of diplomatic closeness?
“I thought the Empire’s General Staff Headquarters was already the best in the world; things they couldn’t do should be impossible for anyone, no need to overly blame them. Unexpectedly, it was I who hadn’t seen enough of the world before.”
Emperor Wilhelm couldn’t help but self-mockingly sigh twice like this, and naturally ordered Chief of Staff Falkenhayn who delivered this introduction,
“You go to the academy and bring that Lelouch kid back to me.”
Falkenhayn did not dare disobey, hurriedly going personally, but soon returned to report: “Your Majesty, that Lelouch seems to have taken temporary leave to Wilhelmshaven, currently unreachable on the road. I’ve asked Wilhelmshaven to keep an eye out; once he arrives, he’ll be told to return.”
Emperor Wilhelm was slightly stunned, then self-mockingly smiled: “Very well, actually there’s no urgent matter, just wanted to chat with him. Forget it, no need to trouble. He must have proper business in Wilhelmshaven. After he finishes and returns to Berlin, come once more.”
General Falkenhayn also inwardly shuddered: This Lelouch, a mere brigadier general, already able to receive such leniency from the emperor? Even for an imperial summons, allowed to complete his current matters first.
