Chapter 121: It Really Rained
The reason Dean Guo said that was because over the two weeks, everyone gradually realized the awesomeness of the Computing Center.
A large number of scientists came to him, hoping to advance the priority of their research projects.
But everyone’s is very important, so why should yours be advanced?
Then they would trouble him to issue a note, hoping to add the word “urgent” in front of their computing tasks.
In such a situation, the computing tasks submitted by the Meteorological Bureau would be computed first thing, and could be said to be highly valued.
After all, this relates to the nation’s agricultural production.
Even because of the Raspberry Pi, it caused a collective illusion among Chinese Citizens.
That is, starting from 62, weather forecasts began to gradually become accurate, and everyone gradually formed the habit of listening to weather forecasts, even rural residents would habitually wait at the village head to listen to the weather forecast before going to sleep.
But from some day, the weather forecasts became less accurate than before, and then gradually became accurate again.
Can the accuracy rate of weather forecasts really regress?
Actually, this is because the Raspberry Pi has a lifespan, and when its lifespan ends, reflected to the outside world, the most intuitive thing is that Chinese Citizens formed a certain peculiar collective memory because of the weather forecasts.
Anyway, after Dean Guo finished speaking, Tu Changwang hurriedly waved his hand and said, “No, you misunderstood, Dean. That’s not what I meant.
Of course I know that the Academy of Sciences has given the Meteorological Bureau the greatest support. What I want to say is, what exactly is the computing precision of the Computing Center?
So I can schedule this year’s work accordingly.”
Tu Changwang thought about it. He knew that Dean Guo was a scholar who might not be very familiar with science and engineering, and even less so with the work of their Meteorological Bureau.
He continued to explain, “Dean, it’s like this: our current weather predictions rely on meteorological observation stations spread across the nation. They record data, send it back to local meteorological bureaus, and finally summarize it here to us.
There are now 262 stations nationwide, like a net, a net covering the entire nation.
But the grid of this net is very large, with each grid being over 200 kilometers long.
The smaller the grids, the more precise our predictions can be.
Right now, we can only manage to the level of rain in North China, rain in East China.
But if we shrink the grids, we can directly say Shanghai will have rain tomorrow, or Yanjing will have rain tomorrow.
But it’s not that smaller grids are always better; smaller grids mean higher requirements for computing ability.
Moreover, building meteorological observation stations requires cost, at least equipping staff with standard observation equipment, and having dedicated personnel responsible.
So we need to find a balance point, which requires knowing exactly how strong the Computing Center’s computing ability is.
Then we can arrange this year’s work, deciding how many observation stations to add in each place and how to deploy them.”
Actually, at this time in China, the observation stations also have the problem of uneven density distribution.
The density in eastern regions is 0.05 to 0.1 per 10,000 square kilometers, while the west is far below that.
“So, could we trouble the comrades at the Computing Center to tell us exactly what level their computing ability can reach?
Best to have a quantitative standard, like the maximum matrix operation size they can complete in four hours, in terms of rows and columns.” Tu Changwang pleaded.
After hearing this, Dean Guo knew it was a pressing need. He said, “Wait a moment for me, I’ll go ask for you.”
Not long after, Dean Guo returned to the office and said, “Whatever level America’s computers can achieve, we can achieve that level.
But pay attention to secrecy; don’t tell this to outsiders.”
After hearing this, Tu Changwang roughly understood. “Good, thanks Dean Guo.
Now I’m clear.”
Dean Guo continued, “Actually, I recommend that you best cooperate with other departments.
You don’t have to specifically build meteorological observation stations; other departments can also cooperate to help you with observations.
Like local enterprises, local government, and such institutions.”
Tu Changwang nodded, “Good, I’ll consider it.”
On the way back, he kept muttering to himself, with countless ideas sprouting in his mind.
Not only excited that the Meteorological Bureau could provide more accurate predictions to the nation’s public and play a greater role in agricultural production, but also sincerely happy and proud that China was stepping into the world’s leading ranks in the computer field.
After returning to the Meteorological Bureau, he only gathered the core scientists and roughly told them that their subsequent weather prediction work should fully benchmark against America.
At this time, Ye Duzheng said:
“Actually, America’s meteorological observation stations aren’t much more numerous than ours.
They only have about 300 primary meteorological stations in total.
But they have something called volunteer stations, through an institution called the COOP network, they’ve built over 5,000 volunteer stations for observing meteorological data.
I think, shouldn’t we also learn from their experience in this area?”
Ye Duzheng was a PhD from the University of Chicago and was very familiar with America’s meteorological observation situation.
Although he returned to China in 50, he could still glimpse America’s progress in this area from academic journals.
Academic journals naturally wouldn’t have detailed data, but he could make reasonable estimates based on what he learned in America back then, combined with his own knowledge.
“If our observation station density reaches the same level as America’s, then with the Computing Center’s cooperation,
Our predictions for China’s weather would no longer be at the level of Central China, East China, North China; the precision should improve to the level of half a province.
Like southern Jiangbei Province has rain, northern has clouds.” Ye Duzheng added.
“Volunteer stations are a good idea, but from what I know, it’s not that easy to do.” Xie Yibing, also a PhD in meteorology from the University of Chicago, added.
Xie Yibing continued, “The main thing is that America’s meteorological bureau maintains this volunteer network, providing observation equipment to the volunteer observation stations.
It should include standard rain gauges, maximum-minimum thermometers, snow boards and rulers for measuring snowfall.
Tu Changwang said, “That’s natural; we can’t expect them to buy it themselves and observe.
Xie Yibing nodded, “That’s natural. The biggest problem isn’t that. Of course, America’s meteorological bureau provides training and guidance to volunteers, plus regular equipment maintenance.
These are all basic work.
Actually, some long-term volunteers, if interested, can even help train new volunteers.
That’s not a problem.
But their way of collecting data is by telephone or telegraph.
We can’t equip every volunteer with a telephone; especially in rural areas right now, very few people have telephones, let alone telegraphs.
They might only be able to do it by mail, but that would be too slow.”
Actually, there’s another point: in America, cars are already fully popularized.
This makes training volunteers very convenient; just drive there yourself.
But in China, the most basic administrative unit is the county, and a county might only have one car. How could it possibly be given to Meteorological Bureau staff to drive around for volunteer training?
If staff have to walk or ride bicycles in remote wilderness areas, the efficiency would be too low.
So in the end, it’s still a productivity problem.
China’s current productivity is insufficient to support them in building a denser meteorological observation network, even if the public is willing to provide help within their ability.
They still can’t do it easily.
After hearing this, Tu Changwang also realized the issue. He sighed deeply, “I understand. The volunteer network matter is on hold for now.
We’ll communicate with local meteorological bureaus to add as many meteorological observation stations as possible on the existing basis.
I’ll also try my best to strive for funding support.
Additionally, everyone needs to optimize the existing models; things we can do right now must be done well.
I believe everyone has heard about the popularity of the Computing Center. They are supporting the Meteorological Bureau with all their might, and we absolutely cannot drop the ball.
Also, if there are any difficult problems in model optimization, you can go discuss with people from the Mathematics Institute. I’ve already communicated with their director about this.”
At this time, the director of the Mathematics Institute was Su Buqing.
In the workers’ dormitory of the Shanghai Textile Factory, Liu Guodong and Xiao Fang were a classic dual-income couple in current Shanghai; the former worked at the Machinery Factory, the latter at the Textile Factory.
This evening was different from usual, where Xiao Fang returned home first and Liu Guodong later.
Today, Xiao Fang returned home later. As usual after work, when she got home, she saw Liu Guodong collecting the quilt covers drying on the public area’s clothesline. Xiao Fang didn’t say anything but helped collect them together.
“It’s still a bit wet; why didn’t you dry it longer?” After returning home, Xiao Fang prepared to wash her hands and start preparing dinner, asking casually.
Liu Guodong said, “Didn’t you hear the weather forecast? The weather forecast said it will rain tomorrow.”
Xiao Fang thought about it and nodded, “Oh, like that.”
She couldn’t help but be curious, “You usually never listen to weather forecasts; why suddenly follow it?”
Due to the nature of the work, the Textile Factory’s operations have a relatively strong correlation with the weather.
After all, rain first affects the Textile Factory’s transportation; if transporting cotton and it rains on the road, you can only stop and wait for the rain to stop before continuing.
Secondly, some other process flows that require sunlight also depend on the weather.
The Machinery Factory is different; it’s all in factory buildings, with little relation to the weather.
Even if Shanghai’s plum rain season is long, it doesn’t affect the Machinery Factory much.
So the two have starkly different levels of attention to the weather.
Even knowing it might rain the next day, Liu Guodong would wave it off saying it’s fine, getting wet is good, then leave home, not minding if he got soaked on the way there or back.
Xiao Fang had never seen Liu Guodong pay attention to weather forecasts before.
“Isn’t it because I heard colleagues at the unit talking, saying weather forecasts have become exceptionally accurate now?
So I observed for a bit, and it’s indeed very accurate, continuously accurate for many days.
When it says sunny, it’s truly no rain; when it says rain, it really rains.
I even asked my colleague in Xuzhou whom I know; the day before yesterday the weather forecast predicted light snow, and February was almost over there, guess what, it really snowed lightly.
Isn’t that amazing!”
Liu Guodong looked excited, “Weather forecasts being this accurate means this year’s agricultural production will see a big improvement; our agricultural machinery might get more orders, and at year-end we could get an extra couple jin of meat.”
Xiao Fang looked thoughtful, “Seems like it really is. In the past, weather forecasts would be wrong two days out of seven; whenever wrong, the Factory Director would complain a couple times.
Lately, he really hasn’t complained.
Including Old Zhang from the transportation section; the day before yesterday when I passed their section, they seemed to mention weather forecasts too.
Probably saying the weather forecasts have become accurate now.”
Even workers could realize it; no need to mention the farmer groups who are more sensitive to the weather.
North of Yanjing, in the first lunar month, field ridges still covered with residual snow, wheat fields with green sprouts emerging.
Huogen was an old farmer; unlike the young ones in the cooperative, he went regularly every day to listen to the weather forecast.
In his view, compared to the past, having it is better than nothing.
The weather forecast’s prediction accuracy is at least 60-70%; isn’t 60-70% enough?
In the past, they predicted weather entirely by experience.
Now with tools and still not satisfied.
As usual, he ran to squat by the cooperative’s only broadcast loudspeaker, where people were already squatting full.
After all, this was a rare entertainment facility at the time; they didn’t have extra money to buy televisions.
The broadcast hanging on the old paulownia tree crackled: “Notice from the meteorological station: continuous precipitation from the 18th to 20th of this month.”
Voices of disbelief from the village youth rose one after another.
“If you say one day, I’d barely believe you; but predicting three days, and specifically 18th to 20th, how can I believe that!”
“Stop bragging. Every time the meteorological station predicts weather over three days, it’s wrong nine times out of ten. Honestly predict one day, and it’s actually quite accurate.”
“Better to honestly go water the fields instead of waiting for some three-day continuous rain.”
“If it really rains fully for three days, the soil might be too hard to till.”
“The meteorological station is still unreliable, always wanting big news. Better to solidly predict one day accurately first?”
Everyone chimed in with their stereotypical impressions of the meteorological station, while also looking ahead to this year’s harvest.
Only Huogen believed, “I say, shouldn’t we prepare in advance? If the rain is heavy, we need to arrange people to dig drainage ditches ahead of time.”
“Uncle Huogen, it won’t be accurate. Look at the sky; where does it look like it’ll rain continuously for three days?
You’re someone who’s seen crop after crop of wheat mature; can’t you read the sky?”
“I’m believing in science.”
“The problem is it’s not scientific.”
On the morning of the third day, cumulonimbus clouds suddenly appeared in the sky, raindrops pattering on the ground, flowing along the river.
Huogen squatting at the warehouse threshold thought, “It really came.”
Pushing the door to look, thunder rumbled in the southeast sky; clearly not rain that would end soon.
The wheat fields instantly buzzed with voices; the cooperative was arranging people to pedal water wheels, repair drainage ditches.
Suddenly, farmers wrapped in raincoats shuttled through the rain curtain.
“Heh, it’s really raining.”
Last two days, begging for monthly tickets!
