Chapter 384: Either On The Table Or On The Menu
So as soon as these words came out, Musk’s expression immediately stiffened.
“No, the Moon doesn’t originally belong to China. What do you mean the expansion range of the Moon Base will be limited to the Lunar South Pole?
There are too many problems with this.
First of all, such an agreement could never be put on paper.
Once signed, it would be equivalent to America endorsing China, confirming that China has unlimited development rights on the Moon, just limited to the Moon within this decade.
First, America couldn’t make such a political promise and credit endorsement. Second, even if we acknowledge it, there’s no way to make the world acknowledge it under international law.”
Musk thought the other party was crazy.
This seemed beneficial to America on the surface, but upon careful thought, he knew that in the long term, these conditions were utterly rotten.
Ten years—ten years seems long, but in reality, what can America achieve in ten years? Achieving the actual control area that China has on the Moon now would already exceed expectations.
Unless they could occupy more than half of the Moon’s area within ten years, but that’s too difficult.
America couldn’t tilt all its resources and energy into this.
Moreover, once China achieves Mars landing, America’s resource projection would also have to shift toward the more realistic goal of Mars.
So this clause is equivalent to handing the entire Moon to China after ten years.
And now I’m loosening restrictions on semiconductors for you. China’s 2024 is already completely different from 2014, and 2034 China will be a whole new scene. By then, if you promote that the Moon has been an inseparable part since ancient times, what then if you force me to return the base to you?
This is a realistic assessment. From the perspective of international law, it’s also impossible to sign such an agreement.
“China can occupy all valuable places on the Moon within a year. Then, if America uses coercive means to land on the Moon and destroy our man-made objects, we wouldn’t mind having a modern war in outer space.” Lin Ran said coldly, “I think Moon War will be a game that only true great powers can play in this era.
Moon unmanned war— that’s pretty cool, isn’t it?
I believe that in this case, the first mover still has a certain advantage.”
Cold War politicians’ instinctive reaction is war, and a war like Moon War that doesn’t cost lives would be even more unrestrained.
However, Lin Ran’s response still shocked Musk greatly: Your reaction isn’t this extreme, right? As a China Expert, I’ve met quite a few Chinese entrepreneurs, but this is the first time I’ve seen one who casually talks about war like you.
Moreover, with words like these, trading becomes even more impossible. What if I trade and you don’t follow the rules and attack me? Compare production capacity with China and send it to the Moon? Develop weapons for the Moon environment?
“I love peace and oppose all forms of war, just as China said in the past that the Pacific Ocean is vast. The Moon is equally vast and can accommodate both China and America.
What I want to say is that your last clause is completely unreasonable; it can’t serve as a bargaining chip in a transaction.
It’s equivalent to something that doesn’t exist, and you’re insisting that this thing is very valuable to America, so…” As Musk spoke, he realized something was off.
Lin Ran smiled, the earlier coldness completely gone: “Exactly, this is the signature move of your soon-to-be-reelected President—creating bargaining chips out of thin air.
In The Art of the Deal, he shared his core trading principles, where in using your chips, he said: When there’s no obvious advantage, you can create chips out of thin air through imagination, sales skills, media promotion, relationship networks, or unexpected assets. True leverage isn’t innate but can be manufactured through strategy, especially when it seems like there are no chips available.
So this chip now isn’t created out of thin air; it’s built on China’s Moon Base and existing technology.
You can say it’s very illusory, but it’s absolutely not a false, non-existent chip.”
Musk recalled the original words from The Art of the Deal in his mind: “Leverage often requires imagination and sales skills.”
Clearly, what Lin Ran said was based on imagination, but China indeed has the ability to turn imagination into reality.
This is the core reason Lin Ran said this isn’t a false chip.
This reveals a brutally unprecedented fact: In this space race, America has fallen so far behind that it can’t even see the taillights of China’s car.
“Randolph, even if this is a chip, it’s a tradable chip.
But your statement is too vague and unclear, and there’s no way to put it on paper.
Can it be signed? Who signs it, Apollo Technology or Chinese official? Who is the other party? America or the United Nations?
No treaty?
Then how to define it? The Moon Base can’t expand—so installing photovoltaic panels on the far side of the Moon, does that count as expansion? Filling lunar orbit with satellites and space stations, constantly watching the Moon and your base—does that count as expansion?
Even if it’s a chip as you say, it’s a chip that can’t be defined at all and can’t be used for trading.
Unless this chip becomes China helping America build a Moon Base.
That would be more practical.
I think it can serve as a bargaining chip for trading.”
After thinking for a moment, Lin Ran said: “The Peary Crater at Lunar North Pole?”
“Possible.” Musk said, “But the problem is that loosening semiconductor technology carries too high a risk and it’s hard to get White House approval, especially from the new President’s core staff.”
Lin Ran shook his head: “We don’t need the latest; we need proven, sufficiently mature technology that’s outdated by Japan.
Nikon’s lithography machines, Tokyo Electron’s semiconductor materials, Sumitomo Chemical’s materials, etc. We’ll make deals with them and buy from their hands.”
Since founding XAI, Musk had gained a deep understanding of semiconductors. He knew very well that among those mentioned by Lin Ran, only Nikon’s lithography machines were outdated compared to ASML’s technology, with significant gaps in yield rate and process.
But Tokyo Electron and Sumitomo Chemical had no such gaps; they were the core suppliers in the current semiconductor industrial chain.
“This deal is too big.” Musk said.
Lin Ran said: “That’s why it’s a big deal.
A deal big enough to put the entire 4V economy on the table.”
Musk immediately perked up.
“Put the entire 4V economy on the table?” Musk repeated.
Lin Ran nodded: “Exactly.
Washington has always been particularly dissatisfied that all high-end chip production capacity is in 4V.
Whether it’s TSMC building factories in Phoenix, Arizona, or in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, or Samsung enduring huge losses to maintain high-end semiconductor production capacity.
More importantly, the Japanese government leading, with IBM participating, and backers including Toyota, NEC, Tokyo Electron, and other top Japanese companies jointly establishing Rapidus Semiconductors.
All of this shows that Washington cannot tolerate all high-end production capacity being in 4V.
Washington even hopes that TSMC withdraws all its production capacity from 4V, ideally not producing a single wafer there.
But America alone can’t achieve this. With China’s cooperation, it’s different; together we can do it.”
4V probably feels speechless: What virtue or ability do I have to make China and America team up to take care of it.
“How specifically?” Musk asked.
Lin Ran said: “Specifically, China cooperates with Japan. Rapidus places production lines in both China and Japan, completely eliminating TSMC in the 2nm era.
Japan absolutely can’t do this on its own, but with China’s help, it absolutely can.
We can help Japan, and similarly help Korea’s Samsung.
With six years of independent research and self-reliance, China has the world’s most mature engineer teams in the semiconductor field. What China lacks is only equipment and advanced raw materials.
Once advanced production capacity is replaced, the 4V region where TSMC is located won’t even be able to do a hard landing on the Moon, let alone a Lunar Ultra-Low Temperature Laboratory.
They will only be completely eliminated in the new era.
And in this process, America’s financial groups can repeatedly harvest their stock market.
This is what you’re good at.
Release good news about Rapidus and Samsung Electronics’ advanced processes, release news that high-end production capacity like Apple and Nvidia is handed to Rapidus Semiconductors and Samsung Electronics.
We casually release news of high-end production capacity breakthroughs.
Every time Japanese technology transfer makes headlines, it’s an opportunity to short their stock market.
TSMC alone accounts for nearly 40% of the Taiwan Stock weighted index, plus its associated upstream and downstream enterprises; the influence is only more, not less.
Equivalent to every short-selling opportunity, every piece of bad news, not only shorting TSMC but also shorting their stock market itself.
When they try to use funds to rescue the market, China will impose tariffs on their export products at the right time, or take reciprocal measures. If they don’t let Chinese cars export there, we won’t let their auto-related components into China.
Economically, complete the harvesting thoroughly.”
Exactly, governance cost—without completely shattering expectations and completely destroying the economy, how can governance cost be lowered?
TSMC is the side dish. Repeated harvesting—Wall Street harvests the 4V economy built over decades, China reduces future potential governance costs, China gains semiconductor technology from Japan, Japan and Korea return to the high-end semiconductor industry, America gains the Lunar North Pole Base.
Everyone wins big, only 4V loses massively, with decades of accumulation harvested clean in one go.
Direct government bankruptcy like Greece would be a good outcome.
This is a business worth hundreds of billions to trillions of US dollars.
TSMC, with trillion US dollars market capitalization, could very likely be packaged and taken away by America all at once in this environment.
Requires China’s cooperation to ensure the other’s resistance is feeble and can be crushed in one blow.
Requires America’s existence, forcing them to open financial markets and allow foreign capital in and out.
China’s semiconductor technology breakthrough to equivalent 4nm is also a key node; the gap between equivalent 4nm and 3nm is already negligible.
Right at this time point, this deal has a sliver of possibility to close.
“No,” Musk felt his mind was in chaos.
This is undoubtedly a big deal.
Just as he learned before coming.
This deal is indeed feasible.
The problem is, it also reflects a massive transformation behind it.
This young man in front of him could actually sway Yanjing’s thinking, making Yanjing willing to adopt such an aggressive strategy completely different from the past.
At this moment, Musk thought of The Art of the Deal again: Isn’t this also creating chips out of thin air? Turning 4V’s wealth into chips, wealth and high-end semiconductor industry into China’s chips, to exchange for Japan’s semiconductor technology.
Tom Zhu was right; the other party isn’t really an entrepreneur but more like Kissinger, a politician who plays regions in the palm of his hand, Musk thought.
“Sorry, you’re right; this is indeed a big deal. I can’t decide on my own.” Musk said, “I need to fully communicate with the White House.”
Lin Ran said: “Good, let’s set aside the others. I believe the trading chips are fair.
I want to talk purely from semiconductors themselves; we both gain time.
China saves time entering advanced processes, America gets advanced semiconductor production capacity, even fully acquiring TSMC isn’t a dream.
With the Lunar Ultra-Low Temperature Laboratory, you save time on advanced processes too.
Everyone gains time.
And honestly, can this really restrict China’s semiconductor industry breakthrough now?
These technologies can only fetch a price at this moment; they’ll only depreciate further over time.
This deal is fair for both sides; we each get what we want.”
Whoever thinks this deal is unfair is the dish on the menu, with no right to speak.
Musk was thinking: With his understanding of big T, harvesting an entire region’s wealth fits big T’s appetite perfectly.
As for semiconductor technology, using Japan’s technology as chips, the probability he agrees is very high.
Musk thought to himself, what kind of monster is this guy? Convincing Washington or Yanjing aren’t easy, but he seems like he can really do it.
